Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CLT 1023
UL 1334
Projected spread
CLT +12.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
UL
82% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
18%
CLT (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (CLT Elo 1023, UL Elo 1334) plus home-field advantage. That projects CLT +12.3 (18% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUL 82% · CLT 18%
Pick: UL
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UL2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCLT
Offense
0.12
PPA / play
-0.0139%
Success rate
34%1.21
Key matchups · Pro
- CLT rush offense (-0.15 PPA) vs. UL rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UL.
- UL pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. CLT pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge CLT.
- CLT pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. UL pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge UL.
FAQ
Who will win Louisiana vs. Charlotte?
Gridpex's model favors Louisiana with a 82% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Louisiana vs. Charlotte?
The model projects Louisiana by 12.3.
What time is Louisiana vs. Charlotte and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Jerry Richardson Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Louisiana at 82% to win, projecting Louisiana by 12.3.