Kent State vs. Eastern Michigan Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Kent State gets at Eastern Michigan: 30th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 68th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Eastern Michigan gets at Kent State: 39th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 124th at stuffing runs at the line. Eastern Michigan is also 61st at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 126th.
How
KENTattacks
EMU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 44% this season, 2 games
KENT1.33#30 of 138EMU1.24#68 of 138
HowEMUattacksKENT
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 29% this season, 3 games
EMU16.9%#39 of 138KENT10.8%#124 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 28% this season, 3 games
EMU17.7%#61 of 138KENT14.1%#126 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 28% this season, 3 games
EMU2.88#86 of 138KENT4.77#135 of 138
The two teams
Kent State
Kent State is in year 2 under Mark Carney. The strengths are offensive, led by 30th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 135th at holding teams to field goals, and they are 130th at defending the run.
Kent State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 19% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.33#30 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points4.77#135 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.27#130 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.10#128 of 138
Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan throws it: Chris Creighton's offenses have been pass-leaning across 11 seasons. The way in is 120th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 115th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Eastern Michigan has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 32% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.13#120 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve20%#115 of 138
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air36%#110 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (EMU Elo 1293, KENT Elo 1056 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects EMU -12.7 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
KENT112th101stEMUEMU127th125thKENTThrough the air
KENT115th113thEMUEMU101st105thKENTOn the ground
KENT88th99thEMUEMU128th111thKENTStaying on the field
KENT43rd89thEMUEMU116th70thKENTTaking care of it
KENT104th9thEMUEMU75th76thKENT
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesKent State leads 19–17 · Eastern Michigan has won 3 straight · 53% have been one-possession games
| KENT | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | points / drive | 1.17 |
| 6.22 | allowed / drive | 2.23 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Kent State vs. Eastern Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Eastern Michigan with a 78% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Kent State vs. Eastern Michigan?
The model projects Eastern Michigan by 12.7.
What time is Kent State vs. Eastern Michigan and what channel is it on?
Tue, Nov 24, 7:00 PM ET, at Rynearson Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →