Elliott T. Bowers StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SHSU 994
KENN 1310
Projected spread
SHSU +15.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
KENN
88% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
12%
SHSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (SHSU Elo 994, KENN Elo 1310) plus home-field advantage. That projects SHSU +15.6 (12% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelKENN 88% · SHSU 12%
Pick: KENN
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
KENN2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedSHSU
Offense
0.17
PPA / play
0.0141%
Success rate
37%1.35
Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. KENN pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge KENN.
- SHSU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. KENN rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge KENN.
- KENN rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge SHSU.
FAQ
Who will win Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Kennesaw State with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston?
The model projects Kennesaw State by 15.6.
What time is Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Kennesaw State at 88% to win, projecting Kennesaw State by 15.6.