Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Kennesaw State gets at Sam Houston: 95th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 133rd at generating havoc. Sam Houston projects no clear way in against Kennesaw State. Kennesaw State is also 98th at throwing it, against a unit 135th.
How
KENNattacks
SHSU
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
KENN#95 of 138SHSU#133 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
KENN#98 of 138SHSU#135 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
KENN#102 of 138SHSU#135 of 138
The two teams
Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State is in year 2 under Jerry Mack. The strengths are offensive, led by 35th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 122nd at turning trips inside the 40 into points, and they are 115th at defending the run.
Kennesaw State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#35projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#122projected
- Defenserunning it#115projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#113projected
Sam Houston
Sam Houston is in year 2 under Phil Longo. The way in is 135th at throwing it, and they are 135th at surviving second and twelve.
Sam Houston has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#135projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#135projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#135projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SHSU Elo 1155, KENN Elo 1331 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SHSU +3 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
KENN63rd79thSHSUSHSU101st13thKENNThrough the air
KENN85th56thSHSUSHSU18th15thKENNOn the ground
KENN12th115thSHSUSHSU135th12thKENNStaying on the field
KENN35th85thSHSUSHSU67th1stKENNTaking care of it
KENN68th118thSHSUSHSU31st53rdKENN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENN | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.9 (#97) | CORE overall | -11.7 (#117) |
| -3 / +4 | offense / defense | -6 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Kennesaw State with a 57% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston?
The model projects Kennesaw State by 3.0.
What time is Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM ET, at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →