Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MINN 1516
IOWA 1937
Projected spread
MINN +15.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
IOWA
87% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
13%
MINN (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MINN Elo 1516, IOWA Elo 1937) plus home-field advantage. That projects MINN +15.2 (13% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelIOWA 87% · MINN 13%
Pick: IOWA
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
IOWA2025 season · national rank shownMINN
320.1119th
Total yards / game
293.4129th5.3103rd
Yards / play
4.9Key matchups · Pro
- MINN pass offense (0.22 PPA) vs. IOWA pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MINN.
- MINN rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. IOWA rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge IOWA.
- IOWA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. MINN rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge IOWA.
FAQ
Who will win Iowa vs. Minnesota?
Gridpex's model favors Iowa with a 87% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Iowa vs. Minnesota?
The model projects Iowa by 15.2.
What time is Iowa vs. Minnesota and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Huntington Bank Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Iowa at 87% to win, projecting Iowa by 15.2.