Indiana vs. Washington Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Neither side projects a clear way in. Indiana and Washington rate within touching distance on every unit matchup here, closest at hitting chunk plays — on this evidence it comes down to the things a season profile cannot see.
The two teams
Indiana
Indiana is in year 3 under Curt Cignetti, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at throwing it. The way in is 127th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Indiana has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 17% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethrowing it+1.41#3 of 138
- Defensegetting stopped at the line15.4%#3 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground23%#4 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.56#127 of 138
Washington
Washington throws it: Jedd Fisch's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 9th at generating havoc. The way in is 138th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −19.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Washington has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss27.8%#9 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down53%#11 of 138
- Defenserunning it-0.11#11 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.99#138 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WASH Elo 1752, IU Elo 2113 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WASH +16.7 (12% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
IU16th56thWASHWASH94th24thIUThrough the air
IU77th58thWASHWASH56th28thIUOn the ground
IU38th43rdWASHWASH102nd35thIUStaying on the field
IU12th36thWASHWASH104th40thIUTaking care of it
IU31st3rdWASHWASH1st53rdIU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| IU | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.3 (#11) | CORE overall | +15.9 (#22) |
| +13 / -7 | offense / defense | +4 / -12 |
| 5.78 | points / drive | 1.89 |
| 1.78 | allowed / drive | 0.91 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Indiana vs. Washington?
Gridpex's model favors Indiana with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Indiana vs. Washington?
The model projects Indiana by 16.7.
What time is Indiana vs. Washington and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Husky Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →