Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (KSU Elo 1674, HOU Elo 1512) plus home-field advantage. That projects KSU -5.1 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Availability-Adjusted Projection
Availability impact
Model estimate- Out Stacy Sneed (RB)not quantified
No ruled-out starters
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: KSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- HOU pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. KSU pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge HOU.
- HOU rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. KSU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge KSU.
- KSU rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. HOU rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge KSU.
FAQ
Who will win Houston vs. Kansas State?
Gridpex's model favors Kansas State with a 65% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Houston vs. Kansas State?
The model projects Kansas State by 5.1.
What time is Houston vs. Kansas State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Kansas State at 65% to win, projecting Kansas State by 5.1.