Georgia vs. South Carolina Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Georgia gets at South Carolina: 10th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 45th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. South Carolina projects no clear way in against Georgia. Georgia is also 5th on first and second down, against a unit 39th.
How
UGAattacks
SC
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
UGA#10 of 138SC#45 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
UGA#5 of 138SC#39 of 138
The two teams
Georgia
Georgia is in year 11 under Kirby Smart, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 3rd at closing out passing downs. The way in is 134th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −41.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Georgia has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#3projected
- Defenserunning it#4projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#134projected
South Carolina
South Carolina is in year 6 under Shane Beamer, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 8th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Carolina has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenserunning it#8projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#15projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#19projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SC Elo 1742, UGA Elo 1948 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SC +10.5 (24% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UGA2nd8thSCSC9th1stUGAThrough the air
UGA18th18thSCSC65th5thUGAOn the ground
UGA15th11thSCSC3rd10thUGAStaying on the field
UGA11th27thSCSC7th81stUGATaking care of it
UGA47th109thSCSC47th22ndUGA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 52–19–2 · Georgia has won 4 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| UGA | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| +35.9 (#1) | CORE overall | +23.9 (#10) |
| +20 / -15 | offense / defense | +12 / -12 |
| 4.08 | points / drive | 6.22 |
| 1.24 | allowed / drive | 0.00 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 0% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Georgia vs. South Carolina?
Gridpex's model favors Georgia with a 76% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Georgia vs. South Carolina?
The model projects Georgia by 10.5.
What time is Georgia vs. South Carolina and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Williams-Brice Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →