Jerry Richardson StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CLT 1023
ECU 1593
Projected spread
CLT +26.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
ECU
98% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
2%
CLT (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (CLT Elo 1023, ECU Elo 1593) plus home-field advantage. That projects CLT +26.9 (2% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelECU 98% · CLT 2%
Pick: ECU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ECU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCLT
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
-0.0146%
Success rate
34%1.18
Key matchups · Pro
- CLT rush offense (-0.15 PPA) vs. ECU rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge ECU.
- ECU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. CLT rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge CLT.
- CLT pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. ECU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge ECU.
FAQ
Who will win East Carolina vs. Charlotte?
Gridpex's model favors East Carolina with a 98% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for East Carolina vs. Charlotte?
The model projects East Carolina by 26.9.
What time is East Carolina vs. Charlotte and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Jerry Richardson Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this East Carolina at 98% to win, projecting East Carolina by 26.9.