Duke vs. Miami Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 0.3 toward 
MIA
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | MIA −21 | MIA −21.3 |
| MIA win | 91% | 92% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Duke gets at Miami: 37th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 76th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Miami gets at Duke: 14th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 119th at closing out passing downs. Miami is also 12th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 117th.
How
DUKEattacksMIA
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
DUKE#37 of 138MIA#76 of 138
HowMIAattacksDUKE
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
MIA#14 of 138DUKE#119 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
MIA#12 of 138DUKE#117 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
MIA#11 of 138DUKE#114 of 138
The two teams
Duke
Duke throws it: Manny Diaz's offenses have been pass-leaning across 5 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 24th at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 123rd at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 119th at closing out passing downs.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −22.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Duke has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#24projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#123projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#119projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#117projected
Miami
Miami throws it: Mario Cristobal's offenses have been pass-leaning across 8 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 4th at holding teams to field goals. The way in is 135th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −38.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Miami has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#4projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#5projected
- Defensethrowing it#6projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#135projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1901, DUKE Elo 1615 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -21.3 (92% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
DUKE85th20thMIAMIA1st77thDUKEThrough the air
DUKE110th45thMIAMIA3rd101stDUKEOn the ground
DUKE42nd16thMIAMIA18th35thDUKEStaying on the field
DUKE97th15thMIAMIA9th50thDUKETaking care of it
DUKE31st118thMIAMIA95th53rdDUKE
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami leads 16–5 · 19% have been one-possession games
| DUKE | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.6 (#53) | CORE overall | +26.8 (#5) |
| -1 / -5 | offense / defense | +16 / -11 |
| 1.42 | points / drive | 4.50 |
| 0.25 | allowed / drive | 0.60 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -15 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Duke vs. Miami?
Gridpex's model favors Miami with a 92% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Duke vs. Miami?
The model projects Miami by 21.3.
What time is Duke vs. Miami and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Hard Rock Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →