Doak Campbell StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FSU 1556
CLEM 1755
Projected spread
FSU +2.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
CLEM
57% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
43%
FSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (FSU Elo 1556, CLEM Elo 1755) plus home-field advantage. That projects FSU +2.4 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelCLEM 57% · FSU 43%
Pick: CLEM
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
CLEM2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedFSU
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.2742%
Success rate
46%1.24
Key matchups · Pro
- FSU rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. CLEM rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge FSU.
- FSU pass offense (0.32 PPA) vs. CLEM pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge FSU.
- CLEM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. FSU pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge CLEM.
FAQ
Who will win Clemson vs. Florida State?
Gridpex's model favors Clemson with a 57% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Clemson vs. Florida State?
The model projects Clemson by 2.4.
What time is Clemson vs. Florida State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Doak Campbell Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Clemson at 57% to win, projecting Clemson by 2.4.