Charlotte vs. UAB Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Charlotte gets at UAB: 27th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 107th at keeping everything in front of them. Where UAB gets at Charlotte: 51st at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 137th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. UAB is also 54th in the push up front, against a unit 133rd.
How
CLTattacks
UAB
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
CLT#27 of 138UAB#107 of 138
HowUABattacksCLT
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
UAB#51 of 138CLT#137 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
UAB#54 of 138CLT#133 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
UAB#57 of 138CLT#132 of 138
The two teams
Charlotte
Charlotte is in year 2 under Tim Albin, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 1st at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 138th at running it, and they are 138th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Charlotte has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#1projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#27projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#138projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#138projected
- Defensefirst and second down#138projected
UAB
UAB is in year 1 under Alex Mortensen. The strengths are offensive, led by 5th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th on early downs defensively, and they are 134th at holding the line of scrimmage.
UAB has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#5projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#136projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#134projected
- Defensethrowing it#133projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1406, CLT Elo 1182 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB -17.4 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
CLT27th131stUABUAB104th113thCLTThrough the air
CLT24th7thUABUAB124th32ndCLTOn the ground
CLT39th30thUABUAB118th132ndCLTStaying on the field
CLT8th116thUABUAB28th125thCLTTaking care of it
CLT68th118thUABUAB31st118thCLT
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CLT | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.6 (#131) | CORE overall | -5.8 (#92) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | +3 / +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Charlotte vs. UAB?
Gridpex's model favors UAB with a 87% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Charlotte vs. UAB?
The model projects UAB by 17.4.
What time is Charlotte vs. UAB and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Protective Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →