Peden StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OHIO 1584
CMU 1232
Projected spread
OHIO -11.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
OHIO
80% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
80%
OHIO (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (OHIO Elo 1584, CMU Elo 1232) plus home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -11.4 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelCMU 20% · OHIO 80%
Pick: OHIO
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
CMU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedOHIO
Offense
0.17
PPA / play
0.2141%
Success rate
45%1.18
Key matchups · Pro
- CMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. OHIO pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge CMU.
- OHIO rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. CMU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge OHIO.
- OHIO pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. CMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge OHIO.
FAQ
Who will win Central Michigan vs. Ohio?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio with a 80% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Central Michigan vs. Ohio?
The model projects Ohio by 11.4.
What time is Central Michigan vs. Ohio and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Peden Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ohio at 80% to win, projecting Ohio by 11.4.