Ball State vs. Kent State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Ball State gets at Kent State: 22nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 96th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Kent State gets at Ball State: 12th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 60th at keeping everything in front of them.
How
BALLattacks
KENT
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
BALL#22 of 138KENT#96 of 138
HowKENTattacksBALL
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
KENT#12 of 138BALL#60 of 138
The two teams
Ball State
Ball State is in year 2 under Mike Uremovich. The strengths are offensive, led by 22nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at throwing it, and they are 137th at moving the ball on the ground.
Ball State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#22projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#137projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#137projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#137projected
Kent State
Kent State is in year 2 under Mark Carney. The strengths are offensive, led by 12th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th at holding teams to field goals, and they are 133rd at running it.
Kent State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#12projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#134projected
- Offenserunning it#133projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#131projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENT Elo 1056, BALL Elo 1112 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENT -8.6 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BALL112th121stKENTKENT105th129thBALLThrough the air
BALL102nd104thKENTKENT111th123rdBALLOn the ground
BALL87th111thKENTKENT81st123rdBALLStaying on the field
BALL123rd70thKENTKENT47th66thBALLTaking care of it
BALL68th53rdKENTKENT118th30thBALL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBall State leads 25–8 · Ball State has won 4 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| BALL | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.5 (#135) | CORE overall | -23.2 (#137) |
| -16 / +6 | offense / defense | -8 / +15 |
| 0.27 | points / drive | 0.00 |
| 4.67 | allowed / drive | 6.22 |
| 55% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Ball State vs. Kent State?
Gridpex's model favors Kent State with a 72% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ball State vs. Kent State?
The model projects Kent State by 8.6.
What time is Ball State vs. Kent State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Dix Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →