LaVell Edwards StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BYU 1750
ASU 1609
Projected spread
BYU -11.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
BYU
80% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
80%
BYU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (BYU Elo 1750, ASU Elo 1609) plus home-field advantage. That projects BYU -11.5 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelASU 20% · BYU 80%
Pick: BYU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ASU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBYU
Offense
0.14
PPA / play
0.2240%
Success rate
46%1.26
Key matchups · Pro
- BYU rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. ASU rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge BYU.
- BYU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. ASU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge BYU.
- ASU pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. BYU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge ASU.
FAQ
Who will win Arizona State vs. BYU?
Gridpex's model favors BYU with a 80% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arizona State vs. BYU?
The model projects BYU by 11.5.
What time is Arizona State vs. BYU and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this BYU at 80% to win, projecting BYU by 11.5.