Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NCSU 1605
APP 1216
Projected spread
NCSU -18.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
NCSU
91% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
91%
NCSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NCSU Elo 1605, APP Elo 1216) plus home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -18.3 (91% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelAPP 9% · NCSU 91%
Pick: NCSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
APP2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedNCSU
Offense
0.12
PPA / play
0.2842%
Success rate
44%1.18
Key matchups · Pro
- NCSU rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. APP rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge NCSU.
- APP pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. NCSU pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge NCSU.
- NCSU pass offense (0.39 PPA) vs. APP pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge NCSU.
FAQ
Who will win App State vs. NC State?
Gridpex's model favors NC State with a 91% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for App State vs. NC State?
The model projects NC State by 18.3.
What time is App State vs. NC State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Carter-Finley Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this NC State at 91% to win, projecting NC State by 18.3.