Kelly/Shorts StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CMU 1232
AKR 1101
Projected spread
CMU -7.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
CMU
71% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
71%
CMU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (CMU Elo 1232, AKR Elo 1101) plus home-field advantage. That projects CMU -7.6 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelAKR 29% · CMU 71%
Pick: CMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
AKR2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCMU
Offense
0.07
PPA / play
0.1738%
Success rate
41%1.25
Key matchups · Pro
- CMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. AKR pass defense (0.23 allowed) — edge CMU.
- CMU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. AKR rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge CMU.
- AKR rush offense (0.00 PPA) vs. CMU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge CMU.
FAQ
Who will win Akron vs. Central Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Central Michigan with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Akron vs. Central Michigan?
The model projects Central Michigan by 7.6.
What time is Akron vs. Central Michigan and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Central Michigan at 71% to win, projecting Central Michigan by 7.6.