Youngstown State vs. Michigan State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Youngstown State

0024

Michigan State2-0

▸0041

Final

Spartan Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
YOUN	3	7	7	7	24
MSU	7	10	14	10	41

YOUNTeam statsMSU

339Total yards444

242Pass270

97Rush174

14First downs23

6-143rd down6-10

1Turnovers1

29:54Possession30:06

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:48MSUElijah Tau-Tolliver 22 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)24–41
• Q4 3:05YOUNKy Wilson 19 Yd pass from Beau Brungard (Andrew Lastovka Kick)24–34
• Q4 8:44MSUMartin Connington 27 Yd Field Goal 17–34
• Q3 1:17YOUNRK Dandridge 3 Yd pass from Beau Brungard (Andrew Lastovka Kick)17–31
• Q3 6:22MSUMichael Masunas 28 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Martin Connington Kick)10–31
• Q3 10:57MSUBrandon Tullis 4 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)10–24
• Q2 0:00MSUMartin Connington 24 Yd Field Goal 10–17
• Q2 5:59YOUNJaden Gilbert 1 Yd Run (Andrew Lastovka Kick)10–14
• Q2 8:07MSUMakhi Frazier 1 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)3–14
• Q1 1:13MSURodney Bullard Jr. 8 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)3–7
• Q1 7:21YOUNAndrew Lastovka 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

MSU −25

Against the number

YOUN covered

line MSU −25

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MSU 100%50%YOUN 100%

Kickoff136 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MSU (top)YOUN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MSU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MSU −25

Closing total

55.5

Model line

—

Actual result

YOUN 24 – 41 MSU

Leaders

Youngstown State

• PassBeau Brungard 24/34, 242 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushJaden Gilbert 7 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
• RecMax Tomczak 7 REC, 78 YDS

Michigan State

• PassAidan Chiles 22/29, 270 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushAidan Chiles 8 CAR, 76 YDS
• RecNick Marsh 6 REC, 94 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.3sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

124

Points / snap

0.52

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

94%

MSU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WVanderbilt vs Hawai'i35-28WFurman vs Tennessee Tech45-10WTulane vs South Alabama37-17WWilliam & Mary vs Wofford23-6WOld Dominion vs Louisiana38-31

Fourth downs

12 calls

YOUN gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.YOUN 7/8 · MSU 3/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Youngstown State vs. Michigan State?

Youngstown State 24, Michigan State 41.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MSU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

YOUN

MSU

43%

Success rate

52%

0.34

EPA / pass

0.69

0.06

EPA / rush

0.27

39%

Early-down success

51%

51%

Pass success

55%

29%

Rush success

50%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

25%

Stuffed rush rate

24%

61%

Pass rate

46%

6.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.9

YOUN

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

MSU

6.9 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

YOUN		MSU
339	Total yards	444
242	Passing yards	270
97	Rushing yards	174
14	First downs	23
6-14	3rd down	6-10
3-3	4th down	1-2
24/35	Comp/Att	22/29
6.9	Yards per pass	9.3
3.7	Yards per rush	5.3
1	Turnovers	1
3-22	Penalties	2-10
29:54	Possession	30:06

Fourth downs

12 calls

YOUN

7/8 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

MSU

3/4 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 14:44 YOUN punt on 4th & 2 at YOUN 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

YOUN 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →MSU 7/10 scoring drives

YOUNFG15 pl, 65 yds· own 25Q1

MSUTD10 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1

YOUNPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

MSUTD12 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q2

YOUNTD4 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

MSUDOWNS6 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q2

YOUNINT5 pl, 21 yds· own 41Q2

MSUFG9 pl, 70 yds· own 24Q2

MSUPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q3

YOUNPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 33Q3

MSUTD1 pl, 4 yds· opp 4Q3

YOUNPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

MSUTD6 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3

YOUNTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3

MSUINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

YOUNMISS4 pl, -2 yds· opp 17Q3

MSUFG11 pl, 71 yds· own 20Q4

YOUNTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

MSUTD5 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q4

YOUNEND7 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:48MSUElijah Tau-Tolliver 22 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)24–41
• Q4 3:05YOUNKy Wilson 19 Yd pass from Beau Brungard (Andrew Lastovka Kick)24–34
• Q4 8:44MSUMartin Connington 27 Yd Field Goal 17–34
• Q3 1:17YOUNRK Dandridge 3 Yd pass from Beau Brungard (Andrew Lastovka Kick)17–31
• Q3 6:22MSUMichael Masunas 28 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Martin Connington Kick)10–31
• Q3 10:57MSUBrandon Tullis 4 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)10–24
• Q2 0:00MSUMartin Connington 24 Yd Field Goal 10–17
• Q2 5:59YOUNJaden Gilbert 1 Yd Run (Andrew Lastovka Kick)10–14
• Q2 8:07MSUMakhi Frazier 1 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)3–14
• Q1 1:13MSURodney Bullard Jr. 8 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)3–7
• Q1 7:21YOUNAndrew Lastovka 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →