Spartan StadiumClosing line: MSU -25 · YOUN covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YOUN | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| MSU | 7 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 41 |
Team stats
YOUNthis game · better side highlightedMSU
339
Total yards
444242
Passing yards
27097
Rushing yards
17414
First downs
236-14 · 43%
Third down
6-10 · 60%Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MSU (top)YOUN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MSU 100%
Drive-by-drive
YOUN 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →MSU 7/10 scoring drives
YOUNFG15 pl, 65 yds· own 25Q1
MSUTD10 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1
YOUNPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
MSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Youngstown State vs. Michigan State?
Youngstown State 24, Michigan State 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked YOUN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had YOUN pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.