| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| ORE | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORE Elo 2075, WIS Elo 1435) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORE -28 (98% to win) — 3.5 points of value on WIS versus the market line of -31.5.
ORE up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Wisconsin 7, Oregon 21.
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ORE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(09:12) No Huddle #15 H.Simmons pass complete deep right to #13 E.Hilton Jr. caught at ORE06, for 42 yards to the ORE01 (#21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWN
End of 1st quarter.
End of 3rd quarter.
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