| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIS | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| ALA | 7 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ALA Elo 1920, WIS Elo 1619) plus home-field advantage. That projects ALA -14.4 (86% to win) — 4.1 points of value on WIS versus the market line of -18.5.
ALA up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Wisconsin 14, Alabama 38.
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ALA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 75 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
Danny O'Neil pass intercepted Bray Hubbard return for 5 yds to the ALA 13
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 41 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
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