Wisconsin vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WISTeam statsALA
- Q4 5:29WISJayden Ballard 41 Yd pass from Danny O'Neil (Nathanial Vakos Kick)14–38
- Q4 13:56ALAConor Talty 33 Yd Field Goal 7–38
- Q3 11:02ALARyan Williams 41 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)7–35
- Q3 14:32WISVinny Anthony II 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–28
- Q3 14:45ALARyan Williams 75 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–28
- Q2 0:45ALAIsaiah Horton 13 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–21
- Q2 12:05ALAGermie Bernard 43 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–14
- Q1 2:24ALAGermie Bernard 2 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDanny O'Neil 11/17, 117 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDarrion Dupree 7 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecJayden Ballard 1 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTy Simpson 24/29, 382 YDS, 4 TD
- RushTy Simpson 6 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecRyan Coleman-Williams 5 REC, 165 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsALA up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Wisconsin vs. Alabama?
Wisconsin 14, Alabama 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
| WIS | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 209 | Total yards | 454 |
| 117 | Passing yards | 382 |
| 92 | Rushing yards | 72 |
| 14 | First downs | 22 |
| 6-11 | 3rd down | 2-8 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 11/17 | Comp/Att | 24/30 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 12.7 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-65 | Penalties | 7-57 |
| 31:04 | Possession | 28:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:43 WIS punt on 4th & 12 at ALA 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:29WISJayden Ballard 41 Yd pass from Danny O'Neil (Nathanial Vakos Kick)14–38
- Q4 13:56ALAConor Talty 33 Yd Field Goal 7–38
- Q3 11:02ALARyan Williams 41 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)7–35
- Q3 14:32WISVinny Anthony II 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–28
- Q3 14:45ALARyan Williams 75 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–28
- Q2 0:45ALAIsaiah Horton 13 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–21
- Q2 12:05ALAGermie Bernard 43 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–14
- Q1 2:24ALAGermie Bernard 2 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ALA Elo 1920, WIS Elo 1619 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ALA -14.4 (83% to win) — 4.1 points clear of WIS's market line of -18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WIS | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.3 (#72) | CORE overall | +20.6 (#14) |
| -11 / -8 | offense / defense | +7 / -13 |
| 1.23 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 2.09 | allowed / drive | 1.94 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →