| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| MSU | 7 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (MSU Elo 1368, WMU Elo 1345) plus home-field advantage. That projects MSU -3.3 (60% to win) — 17.7 points of value on WMU versus the market line of -21.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = WMU ahead, below = MSU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. MSU pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge MSU.
- MSU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge MSU.
- WMU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. MSU rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MSU.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MSU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Michigan State?
Western Michigan 6, Michigan State 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.