Western Michigan vs. Michigan State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WMUTeam statsMSU
- Q4 2:51WMUTate Hallock 32 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–23
- Q3 8:01MSUTeam Safety0–23
- Q2 1:58MSUMakhi Frazier 9 Yd Run (Blake Sislo Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:43MSUNick Marsh 7 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Blake Sislo Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:30MSUBrandon Tullis 12 Yd Run (Blake Sislo Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBrady Jones 11/23, 97 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJalen Buckley 9 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecBaylin Brooks 3 REC, 85 YDS
- PassAidan Chiles 17/23, 155 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMakhi Frazier 14 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RecOmari Kelly 7 REC, 75 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 15:00MSU +16%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari Kelly for a 1ST down Western Michigan Penalty, off-side (Nadame Tucker) to the WMU 48 for a 1ST down
- Q2 10:43MSU +14%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK)
- Q2 1:58MSU +6%
Makhi Frazier run for 9 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Michigan State?
Western Michigan 6, Michigan State 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MSU) was correct.
| WMU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 217 | Total yards | 336 |
| 188 | Passing yards | 155 |
| 29 | Rushing yards | 181 |
| 10 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/33 | Comp/Att | 17/24 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 1.2 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-21 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 23:13 | Possession | 36:47 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:15 WMU punt on 4th & 1 at WMU 11. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:51WMUTate Hallock 32 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–23
- Q3 8:01MSUTeam Safety0–23
- Q2 1:58MSUMakhi Frazier 9 Yd Run (Blake Sislo Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:43MSUNick Marsh 7 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Blake Sislo Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:30MSUBrandon Tullis 12 Yd Run (Blake Sislo Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSU Elo 1368, WMU Elo 1345 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSU -3.3 (60% to win) — 17.7 points clear of WMU's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan State leads 14–0 · Michigan State has won 14 straight · 14% have been one-possession games
| WMU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.8 (#62) | CORE overall | -8.6 (#91) |
| -5 / -7 | offense / defense | -4 / +4 |
| 2.04 | points / drive | 1.95 |
| 1.60 | allowed / drive | 2.64 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -13 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →