Warren McGuirk Alumni StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| MASS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MASS 1039
WMU 1254
Projected spread
MASS +6.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
WMU
68% to win
Market spread
MASS +12.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MASS
6.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
32%
MASS · market 21%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MASS Elo 1039, WMU Elo 1254) plus home-field advantage. That projects MASS +6.2 (32% to win) — 6.3 points of value on MASS versus the market line of +12.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MASS (top)WMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MASS 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. MASS pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MASS.
- MASS rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. WMU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge WMU.
- MASS pass offense (0.02 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge WMU.
Drive-by-drive
WMU 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MASS 1/11 scoring drives
MASSFG11 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q1
WMUFUM5 pl, 30 yds· own 28Q1
MASSPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 42Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WMU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
WMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Massachusetts?
Western Michigan 21, Massachusetts 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.