| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| TOL | 21 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 45 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (TOL Elo 1445, WKU Elo 1450) plus home-field advantage. That projects TOL -2.2 (56% to win) — 5.8 points of value on WKU versus the market line of -8.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: TOL · 13 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Key matchups · Pro
- WKU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. TOL pass defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge WKU.
- TOL pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. WKU pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge TOL.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. TOL rush defense (-0.01 allowed) — edge WKU.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TOL up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Toledo?
Western Kentucky 21, Toledo 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TOL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.