Western Kentucky vs. Toledo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsTOL
- Q4 6:26WKUCameron Flowers 11 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)21–45
- Q4 13:08WKUJaden McGill 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)14–45
- Q3 5:30TOLConnor Jones 5 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–45
- Q3 14:49TOLChip Trayanum 75 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–38
- Q2 1:25TOLJunior Vandeross III 71 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–31
- Q2 11:50TOLDylan Cunanan 32 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q1 2:34TOLChip Trayanum 10 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–21
- Q1 6:48WKUMatthew Henry 7 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)7–14
- Q1 11:52TOLEmmanuel McNeil-Warren 37 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:57TOLChip Trayanum 1 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMaverick McIvor 23/38, 235 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMarvis Parrish 7 CAR, 22 YDS
- RecMoussa Barry 3 REC, 110 YDS
- PassTucker Gleason 7/12, 155 YDS, 2 TD
- RushChip Trayanum 14 CAR, 163 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJunior Vandeross III 5 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:44TOL +37%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 10 yds to the WKU 35 for a 1ST down
- Q4 6:26WKU +36%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 11 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q4 13:08WKU +33%
Jaden McGill run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q1 2:34TOL +19%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Chip Trayanum for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
- Q2 1:25TOL +18%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 71 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
- Q1 12:57TOL +17%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Toledo?
Western Kentucky 21, Toledo 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
| WKU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 333 | Total yards | 508 |
| 274 | Passing yards | 201 |
| 59 | Rushing yards | 307 |
| 18 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 24/39 | Comp/Att | 12/21 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 7.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 9-78 |
| 26:35 | Possession | 33:25 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:46 WKU punt on 4th & 2 at WKU 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:26WKUCameron Flowers 11 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)21–45
- Q4 13:08WKUJaden McGill 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)14–45
- Q3 5:30TOLConnor Jones 5 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–45
- Q3 14:49TOLChip Trayanum 75 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–38
- Q2 1:25TOLJunior Vandeross III 71 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–31
- Q2 11:50TOLDylan Cunanan 32 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q1 2:34TOLChip Trayanum 10 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–21
- Q1 6:48WKUMatthew Henry 7 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)7–14
- Q1 11:52TOLEmmanuel McNeil-Warren 37 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:57TOLChip Trayanum 1 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TOL Elo 1445, WKU Elo 1450 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TOL -2.2 (57% to win) — 5.8 points clear of WKU's market line of -8. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WKU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.3 (#83) | CORE overall | +18.3 (#19) |
| -6 / +0 | offense / defense | +3 / -15 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 1.79 | allowed / drive | 1.17 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →