| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| LSU | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LSU Elo 1693, WKU Elo 1398) plus home-field advantage. That projects LSU -14.2 (85% to win) — 10.8 points of value on WKU versus the market line of -25.
LSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Western Kentucky 10, LSU 13.
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had LSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Dylan Flowers 71 Yd Fumble Return (John Cannon Kick)
(10:13) Shotgun #16 R.Tisdale Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #0 M.Henry thrown to LSU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(03:22) #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #14 T.Green thrown to WKU05 broken up by #6 N.Ward, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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