Lanny and Sharon Martin StadiumClosing line: NU -31 · NU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEST | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| NU | 15 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 42 |
Team stats
WESTthis game · better side highlightedNU
181
Total yards
526110
Passing yards
24571
Rushing yards
28110
First downs
242-12 · 17%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NU (top)WEST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NU 100%
Drive-by-drive
WEST 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →NU 7/12 scoring drives
NUDOWNS6 pl, 30 yds· own 27Q1
WESTPUNT4 pl, 6 yds· own 27Q1
NUDOWNS5 pl, 73 yds· own 22Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
NU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Illinois vs. Northwestern?
Western Illinois 7, Northwestern 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WEST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had WEST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.