Western Illinois vs. Northwestern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Western Illinois0-1
Northwestern0-1
▸Final
Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
WESTTeam statsNU
181Total yards526
110Pass245
71Rush281
10First downs24
2-123rd down8-16
1Turnovers1
24:06Possession35:54
- Q4 2:47WESTChristian Anaya 8 Yd pass from Cason Carswell (Antonio Chadha Kick)7–42
- Q4 7:07NURyan Boe 58 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)0–42
- Q4 10:43NUDrew Wagner 4 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Jack Olsen Kick)0–35
- Q3 1:40NULuke Akers 25 Yd Field Goal 0–28
- Q3 7:06NULuke Akers 35 Yd Field Goal 0–25
- Q2 0:28NUHunter Welcing 6 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Luke Akers Kick)0–22
- Q1 6:44NUHayden Eligon II 5 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Lawson Albright Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
- Q1 11:58NUCam Porter 43 Yd Run (Luke Akers Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
NU −31
Against the number
NU covered
line NU −31
What the numbers say
- WEST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 5.3
Kickoff144 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
NU (top)WEST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NU 100%
Closing line
NU −31
Closing total
49.0
Model line
—
Actual result
WEST 7 – 42 NU
Western Illinois
- PassCason Carswell 6/8, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMarkell Holman 13 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecDemari Davis 3 REC, 46 YDS
Northwestern
- PassPreston Stone 21/29, 245 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCam Porter 12 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGriffin Wilde 5 REC, 94 YDS
28.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
123
Points / snap
0.40
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
NU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Illinois vs. Northwestern?
Western Illinois 7, Northwestern 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NU) was correct.
WEST
NU
35%
Success rate
49%
-0.14
EPA / pass
0.41
0.36
EPA / rush
0.32
36%
Early-down success
44%
33%
Pass success
45%
38%
Rush success
51%
8%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
14%
5%
Stuffed rush rate
22%
59%
Pass rate
43%
8.5
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.3
WEST
8.5 yards to go on 3rd down
51 scrimmage snaps
NU
5.3 yards to go on 3rd down
72 scrimmage snaps
| WEST | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 181 | Total yards | 526 |
| 110 | Passing yards | 245 |
| 71 | Rushing yards | 281 |
| 10 | First downs | 24 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 12/27 | Comp/Att | 21/29 |
| 4.1 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-13 | Penalties | 6-54 |
| 24:06 | Possession | 35:54 |
WEST
7/9 with the model
−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
NU
7/7 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q3 11:19 WEST field goal on 4th & 1 at NU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.02 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishWEST 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →NU 7/12 scoring drives
NUDOWNS6 pl, 30 yds· own 27Q1
WESTPUNT4 pl, 6 yds· own 27Q1
NUDOWNS5 pl, 73 yds· own 22Q1
WESTINT6 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1
NUDOWNS2 pl, 16 yds· opp 47Q1
WESTPUNT4 pl, 2 yds· own 34Q1
NUPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 20Q1
WESTPUNT4 pl, 0 yds· own 15Q2
NUPUNT7 pl, 32 yds· opp 48Q2
WESTPUNT10 pl, 50 yds· own 15Q2
NUPUNT4 pl, 0 yds· own 10Q2
WESTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 48Q2
NUDOWNS13 pl, 77 yds· own 17Q2
WESTDOWNS1 pl, 8 yds· own 12Q2
WESTDOWNS5 pl, 50 yds· own 21Q3
NUDOWNS9 pl, 53 yds· own 30Q3
WESTPUNT4 pl, 0 yds· own 21Q3
NUDOWNS7 pl, 64 yds· own 29Q3
WESTPUNT4 pl, 0 yds· own 22Q3
NUDOWNS10 pl, 53 yds· own 43Q3
WESTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
NUTD3 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4
WESTDOWNS10 pl, 67 yds· own 25Q4
NUDOWNS4 pl, 11 yds· own 35Q4
- Q4 2:47WESTChristian Anaya 8 Yd pass from Cason Carswell (Antonio Chadha Kick)7–42
- Q4 7:07NURyan Boe 58 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)0–42
- Q4 10:43NUDrew Wagner 4 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Jack Olsen Kick)0–35
- Q3 1:40NULuke Akers 25 Yd Field Goal 0–28
- Q3 7:06NULuke Akers 35 Yd Field Goal 0–25
- Q2 0:28NUHunter Welcing 6 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Luke Akers Kick)0–22
- Q1 6:44NUHayden Eligon II 5 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Lawson Albright Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
- Q1 11:58NUCam Porter 43 Yd Run (Luke Akers Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →