Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)Closing line: ILL -48.5 · ILL covered
Fri, Aug 29, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEST | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| ILL | 14 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 52 |
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = WEST ahead, below = ILL ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
ILL up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Western Illinois 3, Illinois 52.
Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ILL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 59 yds to the WIU 4 for a 1ST down
Aidan Laughery run for 57 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
Luke Altmyer sacked by David Dunston for a loss of 10 yards to the ILL 41
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