Western Illinois vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Western Illinois

03

Illinois

▸0052

Final

Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

	1	2	3	4	T
WEST	0	0	0	3	3
ILL	14	17	7	14	52

WESTTeam statsILL

163Total yards440

134Pass231

29Rush209

11First downs21

5-143rd down4-9

1Turnovers0

27:18Possession32:42

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:27ILLAidan Laughery 57 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)3–52
• Q4 8:27ILLKaden Feagin 7 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)3–45
• Q4 14:57WESTAntonio Chadha 20 Yd Field Goal 3–38
• Q3 8:00ILLHank Beatty 69 Yd Punt Return (David Olano Kick)0–38
• Q2 3:09ILLJustin Bowick 13 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)0–31
• Q2 7:54ILLDavid Olano 35 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q2 13:20ILLAidan Laughery 25 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)0–21
• Q1 3:48ILLJustin Bowick 3 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)0–14
• Q1 6:43ILLTanner Arkin 3 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

ILL −48.5

Against the number

ILL covered

line ILL −48.5

What the numbers say

• WEST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ILL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 5.0

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

WEST aheadILL ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = WEST ahead, below = ILL ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ILL −48.5

Closing total

63.0

Model line

—

Actual result

WEST 3 – 52 ILL

Leaders

Western Illinois

• PassChris Irvin 14/29, 134 YDS
• RushMarkell Holman 12 CAR, 20 YDS
• RecDemari Davis 4 REC, 65 YDS

Illinois

• PassLuke Altmyer 17/21, 217 YDS, 3 TD
• RushAidan Laughery 9 CAR, 101 YDS, 2 TD
• RecHank Beatty 5 REC, 108 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

117

Points / snap

0.47

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ILL up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ILL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas State vs Southeast Missouri State45-0WMichigan State vs Richmond45-14WSoutheast Missouri State vs Lindenwood45-7WMontana State vs Stetson57-20WMissouri State vs Utah Tech59-14

Fourth downs

16 calls

WEST gave up 1.4 points to the model on fourth down.WEST 9/10 · ILL 4/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Western Illinois vs. Illinois?

Western Illinois 3, Illinois 52.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WEST

ILL

23%

Success rate

56%

-0.08

EPA / pass

0.76

-0.30

EPA / rush

0.38

21%

Early-down success

58%

26%

Pass success

60%

18%

Rush success

53%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

32%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

59%

Pass rate

47%

9.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.0

WEST

9.2 yards to go on 3rd down

53 scrimmage snaps

ILL

5.0 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WEST		ILL
163	Total yards	440
134	Passing yards	231
29	Rushing yards	209
11	First downs	21
5-14	3rd down	4-9
0-2	4th down	2-2
14/29	Comp/Att	18/22
4.6	Yards per pass	10.5
1.1	Yards per rush	5.6
1	Turnovers	0
8-59	Penalties	5-60
27:18	Possession	32:42

Fourth downs

16 calls

WEST

9/10 with the model

−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

ILL

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q4 14:57 WEST field goal on 4th & 2 at ILL 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WEST 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →ILL 7/10 scoring drives

WESTDOWNS9 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q1

ILLTD8 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1

WESTFUM1 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1

ILLTD5 pl, 26 yds· opp 26Q1

WESTPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q1

ILLTD7 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q1

WESTDOWNS5 pl, 41 yds· own 25Q2

ILLFG8 pl, 49 yds· own 34Q2

WESTPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q2

ILLTD4 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2

WESTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q2

ILLPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 43Q2

WESTEND2 pl, 0 yds· own 40Q2

ILLMISS9 pl, 55 yds· own 35Q3

WESTTD3 pl, 1 yds· own 18Q3

WESTFG16 pl, 73 yds· own 25Q3

ILLTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

WESTPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4

ILLTD2 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4

WESTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4

ILLEND5 pl, 13 yds· opp 34Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:27ILLAidan Laughery 57 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)3–52
• Q4 8:27ILLKaden Feagin 7 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)3–45
• Q4 14:57WESTAntonio Chadha 20 Yd Field Goal 3–38
• Q3 8:00ILLHank Beatty 69 Yd Punt Return (David Olano Kick)0–38
• Q2 3:09ILLJustin Bowick 13 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)0–31
• Q2 7:54ILLDavid Olano 35 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q2 13:20ILLAidan Laughery 25 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)0–21
• Q1 3:48ILLJustin Bowick 3 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)0–14
• Q1 6:43ILLTanner Arkin 3 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →