West Virginia vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WVUTeam statsOHIO
- Q3 12:31WVUKade Hensley 38 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 1:19OHIOChase Hendricks 31 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Brack Peacock Kick)7–17
- Q2 2:36OHIOSieh Bangura 1 Yd Run (Brack Peacock Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:07OHIOBrack Peacock 37 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 3:22WVUJahiem White 32 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassNicco Marchiol 15/26, 178 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJahiem White 6 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Bray 4 REC, 69 YDS
- PassParker Navarro 22/31, 247 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushParker Navarro 18 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecChase Hendricks 8 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOHIO up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:36OHIO +20%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd for a TD (Brack Peacock KICK)
- Q1 3:22WVU +19%
Jahiem White run for 32 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
- Q2 1:19OHIO +15%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 31 yds for a TD (Brack Peacock KICK)
- Q3 12:31WVU +9%
Kade Hensley 38 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 1:07OHIO +8%
Brack Peacock 37 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 8:21OHIO +7%
PENALTY Ohio Delay Of Game 5 yards from Ohio43 to Ohio38. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of West Virginia vs. Ohio?
West Virginia 10, Ohio 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
| WVU | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 250 | Total yards | 429 |
| 178 | Passing yards | 247 |
| 72 | Rushing yards | 182 |
| 13 | First downs | 24 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 22/31 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-85 | Penalties | 10-68 |
| 19:45 | Possession | 40:15 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:16 WVU punt on 4th & 3 at WVU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 12:31WVUKade Hensley 38 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 1:19OHIOChase Hendricks 31 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Brack Peacock Kick)7–17
- Q2 2:36OHIOSieh Bangura 1 Yd Run (Brack Peacock Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:07OHIOBrack Peacock 37 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 3:22WVUJahiem White 32 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1619, WVU Elo 1470 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -8.4 (72% to win) — 11.9 points clear of OHIO's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWest Virginia leads 8–3 · 27% have been one-possession games
| WVU | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.6 (#98) | CORE overall | -1.1 (#66) |
| -11 / -1 | offense / defense | +1 / +2 |
| 1.51 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 1.96 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →