| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WVU | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| OHIO | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OHIO Elo 1619, WVU Elo 1470) plus home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -8.4 (73% to win) — 11.9 points of value on OHIO versus the market line of +3.5.
OHIO up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
West Virginia 10, Ohio 17.
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OHIO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jaden Bray for 45 yds to the OHIO 22 for a 1ST down
Parker Navarro pass intercepted Darrian Lewis return for 31 yds to the OHIO 49
Jahiem White run for 32 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
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