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Washington vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 8, 9:30 PM
Camp Randall StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WASH | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| WIS | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WIS 1455
WASH 1703
Projected spread
WIS +7.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
WASH
71% to win
Market spread
WIS +10.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
WIS
3.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
29%
WIS · market 22%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WIS Elo 1455, WASH Elo 1703) plus home-field advantage. That projects WIS +7.5 (29% to win) — 3.0 points of value on WIS versus the market line of +10.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WIS (top)WASH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WIS 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
WASH2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWIS
Offense
0.29
PPA / play
0.0149%
Success rate
35%1.23
Explosiveness
1.234.58
Pts / opportunity
2.2877%
Power success
66%Defense
0.08
PPA allowed / play
0.1939%
Success rate allowed
45%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.1715%
Havoc rate
13%16%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- WASH rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. WIS rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge WASH.
- WIS pass offense (0.03 PPA) vs. WASH pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge WASH.
- WIS rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. WASH rush defense (-0.03 allowed) — edge WIS.
Drive-by-drive
WASH 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →WIS 3/13 scoring drives
WASHDOWNS7 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q1
WISMISS8 pl, 31 yds· own 38Q1
WASHPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 32Q1
WISDOWNS8 pl, 58 yds· own 37Q1
WASHPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 5Q1
WISFG8 pl, 18 yds· opp 43Q1
WASHFG11 pl, 52 yds· own 25Q2
WISPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q2
WASHTD2 pl, 1 yds· opp 1Q2
WISPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 24Q2
WASHINT5 pl, 35 yds· own 29Q2
WISPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 20Q2
WASHPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 23Q2
WISEND5 pl, 2 yds· opp 48Q2
WISPUNT10 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q3
WASHFUM5 pl, -1 yds· own 8Q3
WISTD2 pl, 7 yds· opp 7Q3
WASHPUNT3 pl, -17 yds· own 9Q3
WISFG6 pl, 22 yds· opp 36Q3
WASHMISS14 pl, 63 yds· own 5Q3
WISPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 37Q4
WASHPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 4Q4
WISPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· midfieldQ4
WASHDOWNS8 pl, 27 yds· own 13Q4
WISEND2 pl, -5 yds· opp 40Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WIS up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
WIS went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington vs. Wisconsin?
Washington 10, Wisconsin 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WASH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had WASH pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.