Washington vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WASHTeam statsWIS
- Q3 1:58WISNathanial Vakos 32 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q3 6:26WISCarter Smith 2 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)10–10
- Q2 7:44WASHDenzel Boston 1 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)10–3
- Q2 9:33WASHGrady Gross 42 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 13:39WISNathanial Vakos 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDemond Williams Jr. 20/32, 134 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDemond Williams Jr. 19 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecDenzel Boston 8 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSean West 1/1, 24 YDS
- RushGideon Ituka 19 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecJackson Acker 3 REC, 27 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWIS up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:34WIS +32%
Kneel down by #5 C.Smith at WAS45 for loss of 1 yard
- Q4 3:03WIS +30%
#49 A.Bertrams punt 32 yards to the WAS13
- Q3 6:26WIS +25%
Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush left for 2 yards gain to the WAS00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 1:58WIS +24%
#90 N.Vakos field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD
- Q4 8:02WIS +20%
#49 A.Bertrams punt 43 yards to the WAS04
- Q2 7:44WASH +17%
Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short left to #12 D.Boston caught at WIS00, for 1 yard to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington vs. Wisconsin?
Washington 10, Wisconsin 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WASH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WASH | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 250 | Total yards | 205 |
| 134 | Passing yards | 48 |
| 116 | Rushing yards | 157 |
| 15 | First downs | 12 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 2-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 20/32 | Comp/Att | 6/18 |
| 4.2 | Yards per pass | 2.7 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-53 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 28:38 | Possession | 31:22 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:45 WIS go for it on 4th & 10 at WIS 35. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.02 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 1:58WISNathanial Vakos 32 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q3 6:26WISCarter Smith 2 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)10–10
- Q2 7:44WASHDenzel Boston 1 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)10–3
- Q2 9:33WASHGrady Gross 42 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 13:39WISNathanial Vakos 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1455, WASH Elo 1703 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS +7.5 (32% to win) — 3.0 points clear of WIS's market line of +10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#82 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #36 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #48 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| WASH | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +21.7 (#11) | CORE overall | -3.3 (#72) |
| +13 / -9 | offense / defense | -11 / -8 |
| 3.06 | points / drive | 1.23 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →