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Washington vs. Washington State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 20, 11:30 PM
Gesa Field
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WASH | 14 | 10 | 7 | 28 | 59 |
| WSU | 0 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WSU 1379
WASH 1604
Projected spread
WSU +6.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
WASH
69% to win
Market spread
WSU +21
sportsbook line
Model edge
WSU
14.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
31%
WSU · market 10%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WSU Elo 1379, WASH Elo 1604) plus home-field advantage. That projects WSU +6.6 (31% to win) — 14.4 points of value on WSU versus the market line of +21.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WSU (top)WASH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WSU 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
WASH2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWSU
Offense
0.29
PPA / play
0.1349%
Success rate
42%1.23
Explosiveness
1.124.58
Pts / opportunity
3.9377%
Power success
68%Defense
0.08
PPA allowed / play
0.0739%
Success rate allowed
40%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.0915%
Havoc rate
14%16%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- WASH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. WSU pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge WASH.
- WASH rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. WSU rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge WASH.
- WSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. WASH rush defense (-0.03 allowed) — edge WSU.
Drive-by-drive
WASH 8/9 scoring drives← own end zone →WSU 5/10 scoring drives
WASHTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WSUINT8 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q1
WASHTD5 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q1
WSUTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WASHTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
WSUFG8 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q2
WASHFG11 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q2
WSUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
WSUTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
WASHTD5 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q3
WSUTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
WASHTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
WSUTD7 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q4
WSUFUM1 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q4
WASHTD3 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q4
WSUPUNT10 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q4
WASHTD4 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
WSUPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 25Q4
WASHEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 35Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WASH up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
WASH went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington vs. Washington State?
Washington 59, Washington State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WASH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.