Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsVT
- Q4 2:14WAKEConnor Calvert 27 Yd Field Goal 30–23
- Q3 0:34VTJohn Love 34 Yd Field Goal 27–23
- Q3 4:41WAKEConnor Calvert 29 Yd Field Goal 27–20
- Q3 7:07VTJohn Love 38 Yd Field Goal 24–20
- Q3 10:24VTJohn Love 32 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 0:10WAKEEni Falayi 11 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:40WAKETy Clark III 3 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)17–14
- Q2 9:46VTTakye Heath 9 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)10–14
- Q2 13:01WAKEDemond Claiborne 11 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)10–7
- Q1 2:30VTMarcellous Hawkins 3 Yd Run (John Love Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:40WAKEConnor Calvert 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WAKE lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassRobby Ashford 24/39, 256 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDemond Claiborne 7 CAR, 29 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSawyer Racanelli 3 REC, 88 YDS
- PassKyron Drones 14/28, 111 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTerion Stewart 9 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecDonavon Greene 4 REC, 52 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:15WAKE +24%
Shotgun Ashford,Robby pass incomplete short left to Falayi,Eni thrown to Hokies24 PENALTY Hokies Pass Interference (Bass,Jordan) 15 yards from Hokies41 to Hokies26, 1S…
- Q2 2:40WAKE +23%
Ty Clark III run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
- Q2 0:10WAKE +22%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
- Q2 9:46VT +20%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Takye Heath for 9 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
- Q2 13:01WAKE +20%
Demond Claiborne run for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
- Q1 2:30VT +18%
Marcellous Hawkins run for 3 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech?
Wake Forest 30, Virginia Tech 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WAKE | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 347 | Total yards | 263 |
| 256 | Passing yards | 111 |
| 91 | Rushing yards | 152 |
| 19 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 24/40 | Comp/Att | 14/28 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 4.0 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-85 | Penalties | 6-74 |
| 32:40 | Possession | 27:20 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:51 WAKE punt on 4th & 2 at VT 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:14WAKEConnor Calvert 27 Yd Field Goal 30–23
- Q3 0:34VTJohn Love 34 Yd Field Goal 27–23
- Q3 4:41WAKEConnor Calvert 29 Yd Field Goal 27–20
- Q3 7:07VTJohn Love 38 Yd Field Goal 24–20
- Q3 10:24VTJohn Love 32 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 0:10WAKEEni Falayi 11 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:40WAKETy Clark III 3 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)17–14
- Q2 9:46VTTakye Heath 9 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)10–14
- Q2 13:01WAKEDemond Claiborne 11 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)10–7
- Q1 2:30VTMarcellous Hawkins 3 Yd Run (John Love Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:40WAKEConnor Calvert 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VT Elo 1457, WAKE Elo 1391 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VT -5 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesVirginia Tech leads 26–14–1 · 32% have been one-possession games
| WAKE | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#42) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#94) |
| -4 / -13 | offense / defense | -0 / +9 |
| 2.03 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →