Lane StadiumConference gameClosing line: VT -5 · WAKE covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE | 3 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 30 |
| VT | 7 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 23 |
Team stats
WAKEthis game · better side highlightedVT
347
Total yards
263256
Passing yards
11191
Rushing yards
15219
First downs
166-17 · 35%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
VT 1457
WAKE 1391
Projected spread
VT -5
incl. home edge
Model pick
VT
65% to win
Market spread
VT -5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
65%
VT · market 64%
Our model blends Elo ratings (VT Elo 1457, WAKE Elo 1391) plus home-field advantage. That projects VT -5 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
VT (top)WAKE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: VT 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- VT rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. WAKE rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge VT.
- WAKE pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. VT pass defense (0.42 allowed) — edge VT.
- WAKE rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. VT rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge VT.
Drive-by-drive
WAKE 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →VT 5/13 scoring drives
WAKEPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1
VTINT3 pl, 5 yds· own 19Q1
WAKEFG4 pl, -3 yds· opp 13Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WAKE up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
WAKE went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech?
Wake Forest 30, Virginia Tech 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had VT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.