Scott StadiumConference gameClosing line: UVA -7 · WAKE covered
Sun, Nov 9, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE | 0 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| UVA | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UVA Elo 1585, WAKE Elo 1382) plus home-field advantage. That projects UVA -10.5 (78% to win) — 3.5 points of value on UVA versus the market line of -7.
WAKE up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Wake Forest 16, Virginia 9.
No — the model picked UVA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UVA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(01:53) #38 D.Sparks punt 50 yards to the WFU12 #8 C.Hernandez return 88 yards to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:33 #90 C.Calvert kick attempt good (H: #9 S.Racanelli, LS: #32 W.Cobb)
End of 3rd quarter.
(09:13) No Huddle #1 D.Claiborne rush right for 4 yards loss to the UVA05 fumbled by #1 D.Claiborne at UVA05 recovered by WFU #1 D.Claiborne at UVA05, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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