Wake Forest vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsUVA
- Q4 3:53WAKEConnor Calvert 49 Yd Field Goal 16–9
- Q3 3:49WAKEConnor Calvert 50 Yd Field Goal 13–9
- Q3 10:35UVAWill Bettridge 40 Yd Field Goal 10–9
- Q2 0:40WAKEConnor Calvert 39 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 1:33WAKECarlos Hernandez 88 Yd Punt Return (Connor Calvert Kick)7–6
- Q2 4:27UVAWill Bettridge 21 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 11:48UVAWill Bettridge 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassRobby Ashford 7/16, 46 YDS
- RushDemond Claiborne 25 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecTy Clark III 1 REC, 22 YDS
- PassDaniel Kaelin 18/28, 145 YDS
- RushJ'Mari Taylor 19 CAR, 98 YDS
- RecTrell Harris 6 REC, 60 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:33WAKE +14%
#38 D.Sparks punt 50 yards to the WFU12 #8 C.Hernandez return 88 yards to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:40WAKE +14%
#90 C.Calvert field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD
- Q2 2:00WAKE +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Kaelin pass complete short right to #3 J.Taylor caught at UVA37, for 1 yard to the UVA38 (#5 D.Patterson), out of bounds
- Q2 4:27UVA +9%
#41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD
- Q4 13:02WAKE +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush left for 5 yards gain to the WFU25 (#1 J.Jackson)
- Q1 11:48UVA +6%
#41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Virginia?
Wake Forest 16, Virginia 9.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UVA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WAKE | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 203 | Total yards | 327 |
| 64 | Passing yards | 164 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 163 |
| 12 | First downs | 14 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 9/23 | Comp/Att | 21/34 |
| 2.8 | Yards per pass | 4.8 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-52 | Penalties | 3-15 |
| 31:42 | Possession | 28:18 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:40 WAKE field goal on 4th & 1 at UVA 22. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.86 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:53WAKEConnor Calvert 49 Yd Field Goal 16–9
- Q3 3:49WAKEConnor Calvert 50 Yd Field Goal 13–9
- Q3 10:35UVAWill Bettridge 40 Yd Field Goal 10–9
- Q2 0:40WAKEConnor Calvert 39 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 1:33WAKECarlos Hernandez 88 Yd Punt Return (Connor Calvert Kick)7–6
- Q2 4:27UVAWill Bettridge 21 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 11:48UVAWill Bettridge 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1585, WAKE Elo 1382 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA -10.5 (76% to win) — 3.5 points clear of UVA's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#78 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #65 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #12 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Virginia leads 34–18 · 50% have been one-possession games
| WAKE | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#42) | CORE overall | +10.3 (#39) |
| -4 / -13 | offense / defense | +1 / -9 |
| 2.03 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →