| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE | 3 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| DUKE | 14 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 49 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (DUKE Elo 1573, WAKE Elo 1542) plus home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -3.6 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
DUKE up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Wake Forest 32, Duke 49.
Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had DUKE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush right for 3 yards loss to the DUKE26 fumbled by #1 D.Claiborne at DUKE28 recovered by DUKE #44 D.Anderson at DUKE26, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD
(06:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short left to #1 D.Claiborne caught at DUKE32, for 9 yards to the DUKE18 fumbled by #1 D.Claiborne at DUKE21 forced by #0 C.Rivers recovered by DUKE #34 L.Mergott at DUKE18, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD
(10:17) #41 K.Reynoldson rush right for 26 yards gain to the WAKE47, out of bounds at WAKE47, 1ST DOWN
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