Wake Forest vs. Duke: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Wake Forest8-3

Duke6-5

▸

Final

Wallace Wade StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
WAKE	3	14	8	7	32
DUKE	14	7	14	14	49

WAKETeam statsDUKE

468Total yards378

342Pass268

126Rush110

27First downs24

6-123rd down5-13

4Turnovers0

25:21Possession34:39

Q4 0:23DUKEJeremiah Hasley 11 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)32–49
Q4 11:13WAKETy Clark III 1 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)32–42
Q4 13:57DUKENate Sheppard 13 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)25–42
Q3 0:00WAKERobby Ashford 10 Yd Run (Robby Ashford Run for Two-Point Conversion)25–35
Q3 3:51DUKEAnderson Castle 2 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)17–35
Q3 9:45DUKESahmir Hagans 30 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)17–28
Q2 0:29WAKEKarate Brenson 20 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)17–21
Q2 1:38DUKEAnderson Castle 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)10–21
Q2 11:56WAKESawyer Racanelli 22 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)10–14
Q1 0:00DUKEDarian Mensah 4 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)3–14
Q1 5:59WAKEConnor Calvert 42 Yd Field Goal 3–7
Q1 10:36DUKENate Sheppard 5 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Model line

DUKE −3.6

market DUKE −2.5

Biggest swing

DUKE +17%

Q3 9:45

Against the number

DUKE covered

line DUKE −2.5

DUKE favored ↑50%WAKE favored ↓

GridpexDUKE 100%

Closing line

DUKE −2.5

Closing total

53.5

Model line

DUKE −3.6

Actual result

WAKE 32 – 49 DUKE

DraftKings, liveDUKE −2.5total 53.5

Wake Forest

PassRobby Ashford 27/43, 342 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
RushDemond Claiborne 13 CAR, 58 YDS
RecSawyer Racanelli 7 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD

Duke

PassDarian Mensah 24/35, 268 YDS, 2 TD
RushNate Sheppard 23 CAR, 75 YDS, 2 TD
RecCooper Barkate 8 REC, 83 YDS

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

DUKE up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

DUKE went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WJacksonville State vs UTEP17-14 WMichigan State vs Central Michigan31-7 LTexas Southern vs Prairie View A&M34-37 WHouston vs UTSA17-14 WChattanooga vs Kennesaw State27-20

Q3 9:45DUKE +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete deep left to #2 S.Hagans caught at WAKE00, for 30 yards to the WAKE00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q3 0:00WAKE +10%
Robby Ashford 10 Yd Run (Robby Ashford Run for Two-Point Conversion)
Q1 13:50WAKE +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete deep right to #7 Q.Brown thrown to WAKE46 broken up by #5 D.Patterson PENALTY WAKE Pass Interference (#23 B.Johnson) 15…
Q4 11:13WAKE +8%
Ty Clark III 1 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)
Q3 10:08DUKE +6%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard caught at WAKE31, for 5 yards to the WAKE30 (#21 A.Hall)
Q3 11:18DUKE +6%
#41 K.Reynoldson punt 51 yards to the WAKE09

FAQ

What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Duke?

Wake Forest 32, Duke 49.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.

WAKE

DUKE

43%

Success rate

46%

0.34

EPA / pass

0.35

0.05

EPA / rush

0.14

42%

Early-down success

45%

Pass success

49%

40%

Rush success

42%

19%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

Stuffed rush rate

34%

62%

Pass rate

52%

6.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.7

WAKE

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

79 scrimmage snaps

DUKE

6.7 yards to go on 3rd down

79 scrimmage snaps

WAKE		DUKE
468	Total yards	378
342	Passing yards	268
126	Rushing yards	110
27	First downs	24
6-12	3rd down	5-13
1-2	4th down	3-5
27/43	Comp/Att	24/35
8.0	Yards per pass	7.7
3.9	Yards per rush	2.8
4	Turnovers	0
8-97	Penalties	5-50
25:21	Possession	34:39

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

DUKE 1573

WAKE 1542

Projected spread

DUKE -3.6

incl. home edge

Model pick

DUKE

61% to win

Market spread

DUKE -2.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

61%

DUKE · market 55%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1573, WAKE Elo 1542 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -3.6 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

WAKE2025 season · national rank shownDUKE

393.863rd

Total yards / game

423.625th

6.045th

Yards / play

6.230th

237.758th

Passing yards / game

285.411th

156.270th

Rushing yards / game

138.288th

40.0%67th

3rd down %

39.0%78th

328.526th

Yards allowed / game

423.7119th

35.6%40th

3rd down % allowed

45.4%125th

-6108th

Turnover margin

+1011th

7.4119th

Penalties / game

6.484th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Wake Forest-Duke102 meetings since 1921

Duke leads 60–40–2 · Duke has won 4 straight · 37% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

WAKE		DUKE
+9.3 (#42)	CORE overall	+2.4 (#60)
-4 / -13	offense / defense	+9 / +7
2.03	points / drive	3.04
1.84	allowed / drive	2.85
30%	three-and-outs	23%
+1	pass over expected	+6

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Sat, Nov 29, 3:30 PM EST
Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium
Setting: Conference game
Model line: DUKE -3.6

The Model's Pick

Duke

to win · 61%

✓ Hit

Projected spreadDUKE -3.6

Market55%

Game Leaders

Wake Forest

Pass Robby Ashford27/43, 342 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rush Demond Claiborne13 car, 56 yds
Rec Sawyer Racanelli7 rec, 123 yds, 1 TD

Duke

Pass Darian Mensah24/35, 268 yds, 2 TD
Rush Nate Sheppard23 car, 75 yds, 2 TD
Rec Cooper Barkate8 rec, 83 yds

Biggest Plays

Duke+-4.3 EPA
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush right for 3 yards loss to the DUKE26 fumbled by #1 D.Claiborne at DUKE28 recovered by DUKE #44 D.Anderson at DUKE26, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD
Duke+-3.8 EPA
(06:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short left to #1 D.Claiborne caught at DUKE32, for 9 yards to the DUKE18 fumbled by #1 D.Claiborne at DUKE21 forced by #0 C.Rivers recovered by DUKE #34 L.Mergott at DUKE18, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD
Duke+3.6 EPA
(10:17) #41 K.Reynoldson rush right for 26 yards gain to the WAKE47, out of bounds at WAKE47, 1ST DOWN

WAKETeam statsDUKE

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Duke?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Wake Forest vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap

WAKETeam statsDUKE

How the model called it

What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Duke?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups