Wagner vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Wagner

07

Kansas1-0

▸0046

Final

Memorial Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
WAGN	0	7	0	0	7
KU	14	15	10	7	46

WAGNTeam statsKU

143Total yards631

90Pass346

53Rush285

6First downs32

2-143rd down4-10

0Turnovers2

26:45Possession33:15

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:40KUHarry Stewart III 1 Yd Run (Dane Efird Kick)7–46
• Q3 6:50KULaith Marjan 27 Yd Field Goal 7–39
• Q3 14:11KUEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 62 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)7–36
• Q2 1:52WAGNJeremiah Colclough 45 Yd pass from Jack Stevens (Nicholas Romero Kick)7–29
• Q2 5:19KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 20 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)0–29
• Q2 13:06KUCam Pickett 20 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Carson Bruhn Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–22
• Q1 3:12KUEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 9 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:14KUDeShawn Hanika 4 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

KU −46

Against the number

WAGN covered

line KU −46

What the numbers say

• WAGN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and KU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 4.2

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

KU 100%50%WAGN 100%

Kickoff153 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

KU (top)WAGN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

KU −46

Closing total

57.5

Model line

—

Actual result

WAGN 7 – 46 KU

Leaders

Wagner

• PassJack Stevens 13/20, 90 YDS, 1 TD
• RushAndre Hines Jr 8 CAR, 25 YDS
• RecJeremiah Colclough 1 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD

Kansas

• PassJalon Daniels 18/25, 280 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
• RushDaniel Hishaw Jr. 14 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
• RecEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 6 REC, 130 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

128

Points / snap

0.41

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

KU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

KU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArkansas vs Western Carolina56-13WMontana State vs Utah Tech63-20WTexas A&M vs New Mexico52-10WArizona vs Northern Arizona38-3WNC State vs VMI45-7

Fourth downs

20 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.WAGN 12/12 · KU 7/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Wagner vs. Kansas?

Wagner 7, Kansas 46.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (KU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WAGN

KU

15%

Success rate

66%

0.08

EPA / pass

0.59

-0.28

EPA / rush

0.20

13%

Early-down success

69%

14%

Pass success

68%

15%

Rush success

65%

2%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

31%

Stuffed rush rate

4%

46%

Pass rate

43%

9.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.2

WAGN

9.5 yards to go on 3rd down

48 scrimmage snaps

KU

4.2 yards to go on 3rd down

80 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WAGN		KU
143	Total yards	631
90	Passing yards	346
53	Rushing yards	285
6	First downs	32
2-14	3rd down	4-10
1-1	4th down	1-2
13/20	Comp/Att	23/34
4.5	Yards per pass	10.2
1.9	Yards per rush	6.5
0	Turnovers	2
10-70	Penalties	6-55
26:45	Possession	33:15

Fourth downs

20 calls

WAGN

12/12 with the model

nothing given up

KU

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (20)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WAGN 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →KU 7/13 scoring drives

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

KUTD6 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ1

WAGNPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1

KUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 22Q1

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 24Q1

KUTD8 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q1

WAGNPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1

KUTD8 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1

WAGNPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q2

KUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 30Q2

WAGNPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 21Q2

KUTD5 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q2

WAGNTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

KUINT7 pl, 57 yds· own 34Q2

WAGNEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q2

KUTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

WAGNPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q3

KUFG10 pl, 60 yds· own 30Q3

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 35Q3

KUPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 15Q3

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 23Q3

KUFUM8 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q3

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q4

KUTD9 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ4

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q4

KUEND4 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:40KUHarry Stewart III 1 Yd Run (Dane Efird Kick)7–46
• Q3 6:50KULaith Marjan 27 Yd Field Goal 7–39
• Q3 14:11KUEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 62 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)7–36
• Q2 1:52WAGNJeremiah Colclough 45 Yd pass from Jack Stevens (Nicholas Romero Kick)7–29
• Q2 5:19KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 20 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)0–29
• Q2 13:06KUCam Pickett 20 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Carson Bruhn Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–22
• Q1 3:12KUEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 9 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:14KUDeShawn Hanika 4 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →