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Virginia vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Dec 28, 12:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| MIZ | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MIZ 1765
UVA 1622
Projected spread
MIZ -5.7
neutral site
Model pick
MIZ
66% to win
Market spread
MIZ -4
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
66%
MIZ · market 66%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIZ Elo 1765, UVA Elo 1622) on a neutral field. That projects MIZ -5.7 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUVA 34% · MIZ 66%
Market consensusUVA 34% · MIZ 66%
Pick: MIZ
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UVA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMIZ
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.2042%
Success rate
45%1.29
Explosiveness
1.223.56
Pts / opportunity
3.8581%
Power success
89%Defense
0.06
PPA allowed / play
0.0437%
Success rate allowed
35%1.19
Explosiveness allowed
1.2718%
Havoc rate
20%19%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- MIZ rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. UVA rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge MIZ.
- UVA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. MIZ rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge UVA.
- UVA pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. MIZ pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge UVA.
Drive-by-drive
UVA 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →MIZ 1/11 scoring drives
MIZTD7 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1
UVADOWNS10 pl, 51 yds· own 21Q1
MIZDOWNS8 pl, 40 yds· own 27Q1
UVAFG12 pl, 42 yds· own 33Q1
MIZPUNT8 pl, 32 yds· own 26Q2
UVAMISS11 pl, 54 yds· own 20Q2
MIZPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 26Q2
MIZMISS4 pl, 1 yds· opp 25Q2
UVAPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 24Q2
MIZEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 10Q2
UVATD19 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
MIZINT3 pl, 5 yds· opp 35Q3
UVAFG7 pl, 14 yds· opp 35Q3
MIZPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 27Q3
UVAPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 39Q4
MIZPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 2Q4
UVADOWNS7 pl, 19 yds· own 42Q4
MIZDOWNS5 pl, 21 yds· own 39Q4
UVAPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 40Q4
MIZDOWNS11 pl, 61 yds· own 18Q4
UVAEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 21Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UVA up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
77%
UVA went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia vs. Missouri?
Virginia 13, Missouri 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIZ, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had MIZ pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.