Virginia vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UVATeam statsMIZ
- Q3 1:00UVAWill Bettridge 39 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q3 4:53UVAHarrison Waylee 2 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:17UVAWill Bettridge 42 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:56MIZJamal Roberts 5 Yd Run (Jayven Richardson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = UVA ahead, below = MIZ ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassChandler Morris 25/38, 198 YDS
- RushHarrison Waylee 20 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Wood 4 REC, 71 YDS
- PassMatt Zollers 12/22, 101 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAhmad Hardy 15 CAR, 89 YDS
- RecDonovan Olugbode 5 REC, 49 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia vs. Missouri?
Virginia 13, Missouri 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIZ, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UVA | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 308 | Total yards | 260 |
| 198 | Passing yards | 101 |
| 110 | Rushing yards | 159 |
| 18 | First downs | 13 |
| 13-23 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 25/38 | Comp/Att | 12/23 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 38:19 | Possession | 21:41 |
- Q3 1:00UVAWill Bettridge 39 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q3 4:53UVAHarrison Waylee 2 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:17UVAWill Bettridge 42 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:56MIZJamal Roberts 5 Yd Run (Jayven Richardson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1765, UVA Elo 1622 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects MIZ -5.7 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UVA | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.3 (#39) | CORE overall | +20.9 (#12) |
| +1 / -9 | offense / defense | +5 / -15 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 2.45 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 1.57 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →