| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 3 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| USF | 14 | 31 | 10 | 0 | 55 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USF Elo 1662, UTSA Elo 1537) plus home-field advantage. That projects USF -7.4 (71% to win) — 6.6 points of value on UTSA versus the market line of -14.
USF up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UTSA 23, South Florida 55.
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:59) #2 O.McCown pass intercepted by #2 T.Ward at UTSA40 QB hurried by #0 J.Lee #2 T.Ward return 40 yards to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #37 C.Leon, LS: #95 G.Cates)
(10:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 N.Davenport rush left for 59 yards gain to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:15, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #37 C.Leon, LS: #95 G.Cates)
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 B.Brown pass complete deep right to #11 K.Singleton caught at UTSA00, for 40 yards to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:35, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #37 C.Leon, LS: #95 G.Cates)
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