UTSA vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTSATeam statsUSF
- Q4 2:46UTSAMichael Petro 27 Yd Field Goal 23–55
- Q4 8:17UTSAMekhi Anderson 19 Yd pass from Brandon Tennison (Michael Petro Kick)20–55
- Q3 2:28USFNico Gramatica 51 Yd Field Goal 13–55
- Q3 5:09UTSAMichael Petro 39 Yd Field Goal 13–52
- Q3 11:56USFNykahi Davenport 7 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)10–52
- Q2 0:00USFNico Gramatica 40 Yd Field Goal 10–45
- Q2 5:35USFKeshaun Singleton 40 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)10–42
- Q2 10:15USFNykahi Davenport 59 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)10–35
- Q2 12:21USFKeshaun Singleton 16 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)10–28
- Q2 13:46UTSAPatrick Overmyer 45 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)10–21
- Q2 14:55USFByrum Brown 13 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)3–21
- Q1 2:07UTSAMichael Petro 33 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 7:06USFFred Gaskin 85 Yd Fumble Recovery (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:52USFTavin Ward 40 Yd Interception Return (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UTSA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 5.0
- PassOwen McCown 16/23, 200 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRobert Henry Jr. 10 CAR, 27 YDS
- RecHouston Thomas 7 REC, 77 YDS
- PassByrum Brown 14/15, 239 YDS, 2 TD
- RushByrum Brown 9 CAR, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeshaun Singleton 4 REC, 122 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSF up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:06USF +10%
Shotgun #2 O.McCown sacked for loss of 13 yards to the USF15 (#0 J.Lee), fumble by #2 O.McCown recovered by USF #5 F.Gaskin at USF15 #5 F.Gaskin return 85 yards to the…
- Q2 13:46UTSA +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete deep left to #9 P.Overmyer caught at USF25, for 45 yards to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under autom…
- Q2 14:55USF +7%
#17 B.Brown rush left for 13 yards gain to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 12:21USF +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 B.Brown pass complete short right to #11 K.Singleton caught at UTSA00, for 16 yards to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of UTSA vs. South Florida?
UTSA 23, South Florida 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
| UTSA | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 381 | Total yards | 471 |
| 309 | Passing yards | 233 |
| 72 | Rushing yards | 238 |
| 25 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 2-8 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 29/44 | Comp/Att | 16/18 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 12.9 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 7.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-70 | Penalties | 5-56 |
| 39:47 | Possession | 20:13 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:01 UTSA go for it on 4th & 11 at USF 28. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:46UTSAMichael Petro 27 Yd Field Goal 23–55
- Q4 8:17UTSAMekhi Anderson 19 Yd pass from Brandon Tennison (Michael Petro Kick)20–55
- Q3 2:28USFNico Gramatica 51 Yd Field Goal 13–55
- Q3 5:09UTSAMichael Petro 39 Yd Field Goal 13–52
- Q3 11:56USFNykahi Davenport 7 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)10–52
- Q2 0:00USFNico Gramatica 40 Yd Field Goal 10–45
- Q2 5:35USFKeshaun Singleton 40 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)10–42
- Q2 10:15USFNykahi Davenport 59 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)10–35
- Q2 12:21USFKeshaun Singleton 16 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)10–28
- Q2 13:46UTSAPatrick Overmyer 45 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)10–21
- Q2 14:55USFByrum Brown 13 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)3–21
- Q1 2:07UTSAMichael Petro 33 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 7:06USFFred Gaskin 85 Yd Fumble Recovery (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:52USFTavin Ward 40 Yd Interception Return (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1662, UTSA Elo 1537 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -7.4 (70% to win) — 6.6 points clear of UTSA's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTSA | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.7 (#58) | CORE overall | +16.2 (#25) |
| +3 / -2 | offense / defense | +11 / -5 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 3.02 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 1.88 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →