UTSA vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Sep 21, 1:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| CSU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (CSU Elo 1363, UTSA Elo 1499) plus home-field advantage. That projects CSU +3 (41% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: UTSA · 6 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Defense
Key matchups · Pro
- CSU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. UTSA pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge UTSA.
- UTSA pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. CSU pass defense (0.38 allowed) — edge CSU.
- CSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. UTSA rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge UTSA.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UTSA up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of UTSA vs. Colorado State?
UTSA 17, Colorado State 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTSA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
Called it — I had UTSA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.