UTSA vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTSATeam statsCSU
- Q4 0:29CSURocky Beers 4 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–16
- Q4 4:49UTSARobert Henry Jr. 74 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)17–10
- Q4 6:19CSUTahj Bullock 10 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)10–10
- Q2 0:48UTSAMichael Petro 40 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 7:04CSUIsaiah Hankins 23 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q2 10:42UTSARobert Henry Jr. 76 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassOwen McCown 14/27, 173 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushRobert Henry Jr. 21 CAR, 144 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRobert Henry Jr. 2 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrayden Fowler-Nicolosi 14/25, 176 YDS
- RushLloyd Avant 10 CAR, 96 YDS
- RecArmani Winfield 6 REC, 93 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTSA up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00UTSA +64%
O. McCown takes a knee
- Q4 0:29CSU +59%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Rocky Beers for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q4 6:19CSU +45%
Tahj Bullock run for 10 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q4 4:49UTSA +33%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry Jr. for 74 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
- Q4 5:02UTSA +23%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Jones,Darrell) 5 yards from UTSA31 to UTSA26. NO PLAY
- Q2 10:42UTSA +19%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 76 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UTSA vs. Colorado State?
UTSA 17, Colorado State 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTSA) was correct.
| UTSA | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 345 | Total yards | 407 |
| 173 | Passing yards | 254 |
| 172 | Rushing yards | 153 |
| 13 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 7-18 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/27 | Comp/Att | 24/38 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-80 | Penalties | 11-115 |
| 26:27 | Possession | 33:33 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:48 UTSA field goal on 4th & 2 at CSU 23. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.28 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:29CSURocky Beers 4 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–16
- Q4 4:49UTSARobert Henry Jr. 74 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)17–10
- Q4 6:19CSUTahj Bullock 10 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)10–10
- Q2 0:48UTSAMichael Petro 40 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 7:04CSUIsaiah Hankins 23 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q2 10:42UTSARobert Henry Jr. 76 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1363, UTSA Elo 1499 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU +3 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTSA | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.7 (#58) | CORE overall | -19.4 (#123) |
| +3 / -2 | offense / defense | -8 / +12 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 1.58 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 2.91 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →