| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
| CLT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CLT Elo 1020, UTSA Elo 1465) plus home-field advantage. That projects CLT +15.4 (13% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UTSA up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UTSA 28, Charlotte 7.
Yes — the model's pick (UTSA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTSA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(03:27) #23 W.Henderson III rush right for 59 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:17, 1ST DOWN #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #20 C.Hogan, LS: #91 I.Hatfield)
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass intercepted by #4 G.Shipman at CLT00, Touchback
(15:00) Shotgun #3 R.Henry rush middle for 25 yards loss to the UTSA33 (#40 R.Williford)
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