UTEP
1-1·Mountain West· Elo 1230
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| TEX | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TEX Elo 1896, UTEP Elo 1230) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEX -29 (98% to win) — 11.0 points of value on UTEP versus the market line of -40.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = UTEP ahead, below = TEX ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
TEX up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UTEP 10, Texas 27.
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TEX pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Malachi Nelson pass intercepted Jelani McDonald return for 16 yds to the TEX 38
Arch Manning pass intercepted Xavier Smith return for 5 yds to the UTEP 5
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Ashten Emory for 4 yds to the TEX 20
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