UTEP vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTEPTeam statsTEX
- Q4 1:57UTEPShay Smith 2 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)10–27
- Q4 10:52TEXRyan Wingo 4 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)3–27
- Q3 1:41TEXMason Shipley 30 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q3 7:50TEXMason Shipley 31 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 0:01TEXArch Manning 5 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)3–14
- Q2 1:55UTEPCarlos Arreola 39 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 5:26TEXArch Manning 2 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMalachi Nelson 24/36, 209 YDS, 2 INT
- RushHahsaun Wilson 6 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecTrevon Tate 6 REC, 64 YDS
- PassArch Manning 11/25, 114 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJames Simon 17 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecRyan Wingo 3 REC, 32 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of UTEP vs. Texas?
UTEP 10, Texas 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| UTEP | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 259 | Total yards | 340 |
| 209 | Passing yards | 114 |
| 50 | Rushing yards | 226 |
| 13 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 24/36 | Comp/Att | 11/25 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-33 | Penalties | 7-78 |
| 23:13 | Possession | 36:47 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:57 UTEP punt on 4th & 1 at UTEP 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:57UTEPShay Smith 2 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)10–27
- Q4 10:52TEXRyan Wingo 4 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)3–27
- Q3 1:41TEXMason Shipley 30 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q3 7:50TEXMason Shipley 31 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 0:01TEXArch Manning 5 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)3–14
- Q2 1:55UTEPCarlos Arreola 39 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 5:26TEXArch Manning 2 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1896, UTEP Elo 1230 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -29 (96% to win) — 11.0 points clear of UTEP's market line of -40. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTEP | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| -26.7 (#131) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#28) |
| -26 / +1 | offense / defense | +5 / -9 |
| 1.32 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →