Utah vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTAHTeam statsKU
- Q4 2:14UTAHLarry Simmons 48 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)31–21
- Q4 5:32KULeyton Cure 21 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)24–21
- Q4 7:52UTAHElijah Davis 97 Yd Interception Return (Dillon Curtis Kick)24–14
- Q4 12:26UTAHLarry Simmons 28 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)17–14
- Q3 8:15KUJalon Daniels 1 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)10–14
- Q2 9:24UTAHJJ Buchanan 58 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:03KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 7 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:39UTAHDillon Curtis 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassDevon Dampier 15/25, 253 YDS, 3 TD
- RushWayshawn Parker 12 CAR, 95 YDS
- RecLarry Simmons 3 REC, 97 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJalon Daniels 10/27, 187 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushDaniel Hishaw Jr. 22 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 3 REC, 113 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 12:26UTAH +31%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Dampier pass complete deep left to #12 L.Simmons caught at KU02, for 28 yards to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 8:15KU +25%
#6 J.Daniels rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTAH00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 5:32KU +24%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Daniels pass complete deep middle to #87 L.Cure caught at UTAH01, for 21 yards to the UTAH00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 7:52UTAH +22%
Shotgun #6 J.Daniels pass intercepted by #9 E.Davis at UTAH03 #9 E.Davis return 97 yards to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 5:28UTAH +16%
PENALTY UTAH False Start (#73 T.Togiai) 5 yards from UTAH15 to UTAH10. NO PLAY
- Q2 12:03KU +15%
Shotgun #9 D.Hishaw Jr. rush right for 7 yards gain to the UTAH00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. Kansas?
Utah 31, Kansas 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
| UTAH | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 414 | Total yards | 477 |
| 253 | Passing yards | 187 |
| 161 | Rushing yards | 290 |
| 18 | First downs | 26 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 15/25 | Comp/Att | 10/27 |
| 10.1 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 9-65 | Penalties | 4-32 |
| 23:03 | Possession | 36:57 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:45 UTAH go for it on 4th & 6 at KU 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:14UTAHLarry Simmons 48 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)31–21
- Q4 5:32KULeyton Cure 21 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)24–21
- Q4 7:52UTAHElijah Davis 97 Yd Interception Return (Dillon Curtis Kick)24–14
- Q4 12:26UTAHLarry Simmons 28 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)17–14
- Q3 8:15KUJalon Daniels 1 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)10–14
- Q2 9:24UTAHJJ Buchanan 58 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:03KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 7 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:39UTAHDillon Curtis 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1499, UTAH Elo 1971 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU +16.5 (15% to win) — 6.5 points clear of UTAH's market line of +10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTAH | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +29.1 (#7) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#57) |
| +19 / -10 | offense / defense | +10 / +6 |
| 3.52 | points / drive | 2.34 |
| 1.62 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →