Utah
9-2·Big 12· Elo 1971
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 3 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 31 |
| KU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KU Elo 1499, UTAH Elo 1971) plus home-field advantage. That projects KU +16.5 (11% to win) — 6.5 points of value on UTAH versus the market line of +10.
KU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Utah 31, Kansas 21.
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTAH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(08:05) Shotgun #6 J.Daniels pass intercepted by #9 E.Davis at UTAH03 #9 E.Davis return 97 yards to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:52 #17 D.Curtis kick attempt good (H: #92 O.Phillips, LS: #44 L.Castor)
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Dampier pass complete short middle to #81 J.Buchanan caught at KU45, for 58 yards to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:24, 1ST DOWN #17 D.Curtis kick attempt good (H: #92 O.Phillips, LS: #44 L.Castor)
(02:20) Shotgun #4 D.Dampier pass complete deep left to #12 L.Simmons caught at KU21, for 48 yards to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:14, 1ST DOWN #17 D.Curtis kick attempt good (H: #92 O.Phillips, LS: #44 L.Castor)
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