Utah
7-2·Big 12· Elo 1941
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 14 | 14 | 7 | 20 | 55 |
| BAY | 0 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 28 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BAY Elo 1621, UTAH Elo 1941) plus home-field advantage. That projects BAY +10.4 (22% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UTAH up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Utah 55, Baylor 28.
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTAH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass intercepted by #9 E.Davis at UTAH35 #9 E.Davis return 65 yards to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:11 #17 D.Curtis kick attempt good (H: #92 O.Phillips, LS: #44 L.Castor)
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Ficklin rush left for 67 yards gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:47, 1ST DOWN #17 D.Curtis kick attempt good (H: #92 O.Phillips, LS: #44 L.Castor)
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Ficklin rush right for 74 yards gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:14, 1ST DOWN #17 D.Curtis kick attempt good (H: #92 O.Phillips, LS: #44 L.Castor)
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