Utah vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTAHTeam statsBAY
- Q4 3:28UTAHNaQuari Rogers 1 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis PAT blocked)55–28
- Q4 8:18BAYKole Wilson 18 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Sawyer Robertson Pass to Josh Cameron for Two-Point Conversion)49–28
- Q4 11:03UTAHWayshawn Parker 5 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)49–20
- Q4 14:12UTAHNaQuari Rogers 3 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)42–20
- Q3 7:14UTAHByrd Ficklin 74 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)35–20
- Q3 8:09BAYConnor Hawkins 31 Yd Field Goal 28–20
- Q2 0:04BAYJosh Cameron 29 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)28–17
- Q2 4:28UTAHWayshawn Parker 64 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)28–10
- Q2 5:01BAYConnor Hawkins 23 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 10:47UTAHByrd Ficklin 67 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)21–7
- Q2 12:00BAYJosh Cameron 1 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:11UTAHElijah Davis 65 Yd Interception Return (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–0
- Q1 2:31UTAHDallen Bentley 25 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDevon Dampier 6/13, 80 YDS, 2 TD
- RushByrd Ficklin 6 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDallen Bentley 3 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSawyer Robertson 29/58, 430 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushBryson Washington 14 CAR, 97 YDS
- RecJosh Cameron 13 REC, 165 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTAH up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. Baylor?
Utah 55, Baylor 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
| UTAH | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 483 | Total yards | 563 |
| 103 | Passing yards | 430 |
| 380 | Rushing yards | 133 |
| 20 | First downs | 28 |
| 6-11 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-6 |
| 8/16 | Comp/Att | 29/58 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 8.8 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-39 | Penalties | 6-40 |
| 27:03 | Possession | 32:57 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:06 BAY go for it on 4th & 6 at UTAH 25. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.23 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:28UTAHNaQuari Rogers 1 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis PAT blocked)55–28
- Q4 8:18BAYKole Wilson 18 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Sawyer Robertson Pass to Josh Cameron for Two-Point Conversion)49–28
- Q4 11:03UTAHWayshawn Parker 5 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)49–20
- Q4 14:12UTAHNaQuari Rogers 3 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)42–20
- Q3 7:14UTAHByrd Ficklin 74 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)35–20
- Q3 8:09BAYConnor Hawkins 31 Yd Field Goal 28–20
- Q2 0:04BAYJosh Cameron 29 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)28–17
- Q2 4:28UTAHWayshawn Parker 64 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)28–10
- Q2 5:01BAYConnor Hawkins 23 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 10:47UTAHByrd Ficklin 67 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)21–7
- Q2 12:00BAYJosh Cameron 1 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:11UTAHElijah Davis 65 Yd Interception Return (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–0
- Q1 2:31UTAHDallen Bentley 25 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1621, UTAH Elo 1941 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY +10.4 (26% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTAH | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| +29.1 (#7) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#54) |
| +19 / -10 | offense / defense | +6 / +0 |
| 3.52 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 1.62 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →