| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USU | 6 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 22 |
| TA&M | 10 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 44 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TA&M Elo 1700, USU Elo 1418) plus home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -13.7 (84% to win) — 20.8 points of value on USU versus the market line of -34.5.
TA&M up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Utah State 22, Texas A&M 44.
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TA&M pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Miles O'Neill pass complete to Mario Craver for 72 yds for a TD (Jared Zirkel KICK)
Rueben Owens II run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 28
Anthony Garcia pass complete to Miles Davis for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
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