UConn
1-0·FBS Independents· Elo 1454
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 0 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
| SYR | 0 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SYR Elo 1476, CONN Elo 1454) plus home-field advantage. That projects SYR -3.3 (60% to win) — 3.7 points of value on CONN versus the market line of -7.
CONN up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UConn 20, Syracuse 27.
Yes — the model's pick (SYR) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had SYR pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Steve Angeli pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 53 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Mel Brown run for 45 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
Dan Villari run for 1 yd to the CONN 7
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