UConn vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CONNTeam statsBC
- Q4 5:04CONNSkyler Bell 38 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)38–23
- Q4 10:40BCLuca Lombardo 25 Yd Field Goal 31–23
- Q3 0:49CONNJavonte Vereen 14 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)31–20
- Q3 11:51CONNJohn Neider 43 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)24–20
- Q2 0:21BCReed Harris 39 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)17–20
- Q2 5:52CONNChris Freeman 40 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 7:31BCKaelan Chudzinski 9 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)14–13
- Q2 11:41CONNJoe Fagnano 2 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)14–6
- Q1 0:35BCLuca Lombardo 22 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 6:16CONNJavonte Vereen 50 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:13BCLuca Lombardo 47 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJoe Fagnano 23/31, 362 YDS, 4 TD
- RushCam Edwards 12 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecSkyler Bell 10 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGrayson James 16/28, 204 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJordan McDonald 24 CAR, 123 YDS
- RecLewis Bond 5 REC, 69 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCONN up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:21BC +21%
Reed Harris 39 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)
- Q1 0:22CONN +17%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 7 yds to the CONN 22
- Q1 6:16CONN +17%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Javonte Vereen for 50 yds for a TD Boston College Penalty, Defensive holding (Isaiah Farris) to the BC 0 (Chris Freeman KICK) (Chris Freem…
- Q3 0:49CONN +15%
Javonte Vereen 14 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)
- Q3 11:51CONN +13%
John Neider 43 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)
- Q4 7:07CONN +12%
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the CONN 49
FAQ
What was the final score of UConn vs. Boston College?
UConn 38, Boston College 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
| CONN | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 455 | Total yards | 395 |
| 362 | Passing yards | 204 |
| 93 | Rushing yards | 191 |
| 20 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 23/31 | Comp/Att | 16/28 |
| 11.7 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-72 | Penalties | 8-70 |
| 27:52 | Possession | 32:08 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:37 CONN punt on 4th & 1 at CONN 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:04CONNSkyler Bell 38 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)38–23
- Q4 10:40BCLuca Lombardo 25 Yd Field Goal 31–23
- Q3 0:49CONNJavonte Vereen 14 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)31–20
- Q3 11:51CONNJohn Neider 43 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)24–20
- Q2 0:21BCReed Harris 39 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)17–20
- Q2 5:52CONNChris Freeman 40 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 7:31BCKaelan Chudzinski 9 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)14–13
- Q2 11:41CONNJoe Fagnano 2 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)14–6
- Q1 0:35BCLuca Lombardo 22 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 6:16CONNJavonte Vereen 50 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:13BCLuca Lombardo 47 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BC Elo 1303, CONN Elo 1541 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BC +7.1 (33% to win) — 4.6 points clear of CONN's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBoston College leads 7–2 · 22% have been one-possession games
| CONN | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.6 (#89) | CORE overall | -10.0 (#95) |
| +5 / +13 | offense / defense | -1 / +9 |
| 3.14 | points / drive | 1.81 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →