Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Sat, Oct 18, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 7 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 38 |
| BC | 6 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BC Elo 1303, CONN Elo 1541) plus home-field advantage. That projects BC +7.1 (30% to win) — 4.6 points of value on CONN versus the market line of +2.5.
Pick: CONN · 38 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
CONN up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UConn 38, Boston College 23.
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had CONN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Reed Harris 39 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)
Skyler Bell 38 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 27 yds to the CONN 40 for a 1ST down
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