UConn vs. Army: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CONNTeam statsARMY
- Q4 1:20ARMYCarson Smith 6 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)16–41
- Q4 5:47CONNKsaan Farrar 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–34
- Q4 8:18ARMYCale Hellums 6 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)10–34
- Q3 6:22ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)10–27
- Q3 14:04ARMYGodspower Nwawuihe 70 Yd Run (Dawson Jones PAT failed)10–20
- Q2 0:00CONNChris Freeman 49 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 3:04ARMYGodspower Nwawuihe 43 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:01ARMYNoah Short 40 Yd pass from Cale Hellums (Dawson Jones Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:17CONNCam Edwards 12 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = CONN ahead, below = ARMY ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassK'saan Farrar 11/17, 84 YDS
- RushCam Edwards 11 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecReymello Murphy 7 REC, 51 YDS
- PassCale Hellums 7/8, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGodspower Nwawuihe 12 CAR, 171 YDS, 2 TD
- RecNoah Short 7 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of UConn vs. Army?
UConn 16, Army 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CONN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CONN | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 267 | Total yards | 476 |
| 84 | Passing yards | 108 |
| 183 | Rushing yards | 368 |
| 14 | First downs | 23 |
| 1-9 | 3rd down | 8-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 11/17 | Comp/Att | 7/9 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 12.0 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-36 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 23:45 | Possession | 36:15 |
- Q4 1:20ARMYCarson Smith 6 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)16–41
- Q4 5:47CONNKsaan Farrar 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–34
- Q4 8:18ARMYCale Hellums 6 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)10–34
- Q3 6:22ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)10–27
- Q3 14:04ARMYGodspower Nwawuihe 70 Yd Run (Dawson Jones PAT failed)10–20
- Q2 0:00CONNChris Freeman 49 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 3:04ARMYGodspower Nwawuihe 43 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:01ARMYNoah Short 40 Yd pass from Cale Hellums (Dawson Jones Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:17CONNCam Edwards 12 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1512, CONN Elo 1554 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ARMY +1.7 (47% to win) — 8.7 points clear of CONN's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 5–5 · Army has won 3 straight · 10% have been one-possession games
| CONN | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.6 (#89) | CORE overall | -3.5 (#74) |
| +5 / +13 | offense / defense | -0 / +3 |
| 3.14 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 2.41 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -34 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →