UConn
9-3·FBS Independents· Elo 1554
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 7 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 16 |
| ARMY | 7 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARMY Elo 1512, CONN Elo 1554) on a neutral field. That projects ARMY +1.7 (45% to win) — 8.7 points of value on CONN versus the market line of -7.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = CONN ahead, below = ARMY ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
ARMY up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UConn 16, Army 41.
No — the model picked CONN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had CONN pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
G. Nwawuihe run for 70 yds, for a TD (D. Jones KICK missed)
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Farrar pass incomplete short middle to #80 J.Neider thrown to ARM00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 43 yards gain to the CON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:04, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter)
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