UAlbany vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

UAlbany

07

Iowa

▸0034

Final

Kinnick Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
UALB	0	7	0	0	7
IOWA	3	14	7	10	34

UALBTeam statsIOWA

177Total yards358

134Pass48

43Rush310

9First downs20

2-113rd down10-16

0Turnovers1

23:23Possession36:37

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:42IOWAHank Brown 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–34
• Q4 14:18IOWADrew Stevens 55 Yd Field Goal 7–27
• Q3 5:27IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–24
• Q2 1:51IOWAKaden Wetjen 2 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)7–17
• Q2 7:28IOWAXavier Williams 3 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–10
• Q2 11:33UALBLasalle Rose Jr. 9 Yd pass from Jack Shields (James Bozek Kick)7–3
• Q1 8:51IOWADrew Stevens 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

IOWA −39.5

Against the number

UALB covered

line IOWA −39.5

What the numbers say

• UALB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IOWA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 4.3

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

IOWA 100%50%UALB 100%

Kickoff134 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

IOWA (top)UALB (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: IOWA 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

IOWA −39.5

Closing total

48.5

Model line

—

Actual result

UALB 7 – 34 IOWA

Leaders

UAlbany

• PassJack Shields 13/26, 134 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJack Shields 12 CAR, 30 YDS
• RecCaden Burti 3 REC, 56 YDS

Iowa

• PassMark Gronowski 8/15, 44 YDS, 1 TD
• RushXavier Williams 11 CAR, 122 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJacob Gill 1 REC, 13 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

119

Points / snap

0.34

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

IOWA up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

IOWA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas vs Missouri State48-17WOhio State vs Indiana23-3WStanford vs Hawai'i37-24WSouth Carolina vs North Carolina31-17WPenn State vs West Virginia38-15

Fourth downs

15 calls

UALB gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.UALB 6/8 · IOWA 5/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of UAlbany vs. Iowa?

UAlbany 7, Iowa 34.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

UALB

IOWA

20%

Success rate

55%

0.01

EPA / pass

0.20

-0.07

EPA / rush

0.27

19%

Early-down success

51%

27%

Pass success

33%

10%

Rush success

63%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

4%

25%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

60%

Pass rate

26%

8.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.3

UALB

8.5 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

IOWA

4.3 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

UALB		IOWA
177	Total yards	358
134	Passing yards	48
43	Rushing yards	310
9	First downs	20
2-11	3rd down	10-16
1-1	4th down	2-2
13/26	Comp/Att	9/16
5.2	Yards per pass	3.0
2.0	Yards per rush	5.8
0	Turnovers	1
3-15	Penalties	2-20
23:23	Possession	36:37

Fourth downs

15 calls

UALB

6/8 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

IOWA

5/6 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 13:55 UALB punt on 4th & 1 at UALB 24. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.80 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

UALB 1/10 scoring drives← own end zone →IOWA 6/10 scoring drives

IOWAFG13 pl, 55 yds· own 35Q1

UALBPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

IOWAPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q1

UALBPUNT7 pl, 18 yds· own 32Q1

IOWAPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 15Q1

UALBTD9 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1

IOWATD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

UALBPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 15Q2

IOWATD7 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q2

UALBPUNT4 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q2

IOWAEND1 pl, 4 yds· own 9Q2

UALBPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 15Q3

IOWATD14 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3

UALBPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

IOWAFG10 pl, 49 yds· own 14Q3

UALBPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 20Q4

IOWATD12 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q4

UALBPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q4

IOWAFUM1 pl, -3 yds· opp 47Q4

UALBEND5 pl, 20 yds· midfieldQ4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:42IOWAHank Brown 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–34
• Q4 14:18IOWADrew Stevens 55 Yd Field Goal 7–27
• Q3 5:27IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–24
• Q2 1:51IOWAKaden Wetjen 2 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)7–17
• Q2 7:28IOWAXavier Williams 3 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–10
• Q2 11:33UALBLasalle Rose Jr. 9 Yd pass from Jack Shields (James Bozek Kick)7–3
• Q1 8:51IOWADrew Stevens 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →