Tulsa vs. New Mexico State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsNMSU
- Q4 3:23NMSUGavin Harris 15 Yd pass from Logan Fife (PJ Johnson III Run for Two-Point Conversion)14–21
- Q4 7:33TLSABrody Foley 18 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)14–13
- Q4 11:38NMSURyan Hawk 38 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q3 6:17NMSUDonovan Faupel 24 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)7–10
- Q3 10:47TLSABaylor Hayes 24 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)7–3
- Q1 1:34NMSURyan Hawk 46 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassBaylor Hayes 14/17, 134 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDominic Richardson 20 CAR, 93 YDS
- RecZion Booker 9 REC, 57 YDS
- PassLogan Fife 28/45, 252 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLogan Fife 12 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecDonovan Faupel 8 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNMSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:33TLSA +42%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 18 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
- Q4 3:23NMSU +38%
Logan Fife pass complete to Gavin Harris for 15 yds for a TD (P. Johnson III Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q3 6:17NMSU +31%
Logan Fife pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 24 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)
- Q3 10:47TLSA +25%
Baylor Hayes run for 24 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
- Q4 4:28NMSU +19%
Shotgun Fife,Logan pass incomplete deep right to Owens,Jackson thrown to TULSA10 PENALTY TULSA Holding (Green,Elijah) 10 yards from TULSA33 to TULSA23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q3 6:11TLSA +15%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 27
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. New Mexico State?
Tulsa 14, New Mexico State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NMSU) was correct.
| TLSA | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 375 | Total yards | 291 |
| 234 | Passing yards | 252 |
| 141 | Rushing yards | 39 |
| 24 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 10-19 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 27/40 | Comp/Att | 28/45 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-40 | Penalties | 8-65 |
| 29:10 | Possession | 30:50 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:01 TLSA punt on 4th & 10 at NMSU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:23NMSUGavin Harris 15 Yd pass from Logan Fife (PJ Johnson III Run for Two-Point Conversion)14–21
- Q4 7:33TLSABrody Foley 18 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)14–13
- Q4 11:38NMSURyan Hawk 38 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q3 6:17NMSUDonovan Faupel 24 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)7–10
- Q3 10:47TLSABaylor Hayes 24 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)7–3
- Q1 1:34NMSURyan Hawk 46 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NMSU Elo 1246, TLSA Elo 1041 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NMSU -10.6 (77% to win) — 14.1 points clear of NMSU's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTulsa leads 15–5 · New Mexico State has won 3 straight · 25% have been one-possession games
| TLSA | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.2 (#90) | CORE overall | -17.5 (#120) |
| -8 / +0 | offense / defense | -12 / +6 |
| 1.91 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | 2.21 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →