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Tulsa vs. New Mexico State: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Sep 7, 1:00 AM
Aggie Memorial Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLSA | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| NMSU | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 21 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NMSU 1246
TLSA 1041
Projected spread
NMSU -10.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
NMSU
78% to win
Market spread
NMSU +3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
NMSU
14.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
78%
NMSU · market 42%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NMSU Elo 1246, TLSA Elo 1041) plus home-field advantage. That projects NMSU -10.6 (78% to win) — 14.1 points of value on NMSU versus the market line of +3.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NMSU (top)TLSA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NMSU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
TLSA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedNMSU
Offense
0.11
PPA / play
0.0540%
Success rate
37%1.26
Explosiveness
1.263.34
Pts / opportunity
3.2160%
Power success
69%Defense
0.15
PPA allowed / play
0.1143%
Success rate allowed
42%1.20
Explosiveness allowed
1.2113%
Havoc rate
16%18%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. TLSA rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge TLSA.
- TLSA pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. NMSU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge NMSU.
- NMSU pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. TLSA pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge TLSA.
Drive-by-drive
TLSA 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →NMSU 4/9 scoring drives
TLSADOWNS9 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q1
TLSAPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 23Q2
NMSUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 44Q1
TLSADOWNS9 pl, 54 yds· own 20Q1
NMSUPUNT6 pl, 16 yds· own 26Q1
TLSAPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 14Q1
NMSUFG4 pl, 13 yds· opp 41Q1
TLSAPUNT8 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q1
NMSUPUNT8 pl, 31 yds· own 5Q2
NMSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 21Q3
TLSATD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
TLSAPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
NMSUFG15 pl, 41 yds· own 38Q3
NMSUTD13 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
NMSUTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
NMSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 40Q4
TLSAEND2 pl, 18 yds· own 11Q4
TLSATD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
TLSAINT11 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NMSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
NMSU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. New Mexico State?
Tulsa 14, New Mexico State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NMSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had NMSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.