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Tulane vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 27, 8:00 PM
Chapman StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TULN | 7 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
| TLSA | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TLSA 1072
TULN 1579
Projected spread
TLSA +17.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
TULN
91% to win
Market spread
TLSA +14.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
TULN
3.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
9%
TLSA · market 17%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TLSA Elo 1072, TULN Elo 1579) plus home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +17.9 (9% to win) — 3.4 points of value on TULN versus the market line of +14.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TLSA (top)TULN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TLSA 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
TULN2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTLSA
Offense
0.22
PPA / play
0.1146%
Success rate
40%1.19
Explosiveness
1.263.88
Pts / opportunity
3.3478%
Power success
60%Defense
0.15
PPA allowed / play
0.1545%
Success rate allowed
43%1.17
Explosiveness allowed
1.2017%
Havoc rate
13%17%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- TLSA pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. TULN pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge TULN.
- TULN pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. TLSA pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge TULN.
- TULN rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. TLSA rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge TULN.
Drive-by-drive
TULN 5/15 scoring drives← own end zone →TLSA 2/16 scoring drives
TULNTD7 pl, 75 yds· opp 25Q1
TLSATD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
TLSAPUNT6 pl, 6 yds· own 47Q1
TULNPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· opp 12Q1
TLSAPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 33Q1
TULNPUNT7 pl, 33 yds· opp 22Q1
TLSAPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 5Q1
TULNTD7 pl, 55 yds· opp 45Q1
TLSAPUNT4 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2
TULNPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· opp 37Q2
TLSATD5 pl, 93 yds· own 7Q2
TULNFUM4 pl, 22 yds· opp 18Q2
TLSAFUM2 pl, 1 yds· opp 40Q2
TULNTD6 pl, 61 yds· opp 39Q2
TLSADOWNS7 pl, 39 yds· own 25Q2
TULNFG6 pl, 54 yds· opp 36Q2
TLSAEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
TLSAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3
TULNPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· opp 34Q3
TLSAPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 40Q3
TULNTD13 pl, 69 yds· opp 31Q3
TLSAPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3
TULNPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· opp 31Q3
TLSAINT9 pl, 33 yds· own 23Q3
TULNPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· opp 47Q4
TLSAPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 23Q4
TULNPUNT4 pl, 5 yds· opp 22Q4
TLSAPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 28Q4
TULNPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 26Q4
TLSADOWNS12 pl, 83 yds· own 11Q4
TULNEND2 pl, 3 yds· opp 6Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TULN up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
TULN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. Tulsa?
Tulane 31, Tulsa 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TULN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.