Tulane vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsTLSA
- Q3 5:28TULNJavin Gordon 4 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)31–14
- Q2 0:12TULNPatrick Durkin 28 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q2 2:13TULNJavin Gordon 25 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)21–14
- Q2 6:57TLSABrody Foley 72 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:10TULNJavin Gordon 12 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:14TLSATim Hardiman 1 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:28TULNJake Retzlaff 8 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJake Retzlaff 17/30, 242 YDS
- RushJavin Gordon 15 CAR, 78 YDS, 3 TD
- RecOmari Hayes 4 REC, 89 YDS
- PassBaylor Hayes 18/36, 245 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDominic Richardson 14 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecGrayson Tempest 2 REC, 84 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:57TLSA +12%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 72 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
- Q2 2:13TULN +12%
Javin Gordon run for 25 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
- Q2 12:10TULN +10%
Javin Gordon run for 12 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
- Q1 9:14TLSA +8%
Tim Hardiman run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
- Q1 11:28TULN +8%
Jake Retzlaff run for 8 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. Tulsa?
Tulane 31, Tulsa 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
| TULN | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 437 | Total yards | 337 |
| 252 | Passing yards | 245 |
| 185 | Rushing yards | 92 |
| 23 | First downs | 16 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 18/32 | Comp/Att | 18/36 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 12-104 | Penalties | 6-54 |
| 34:59 | Possession | 25:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:31 TULN punt on 4th & 2 at TULN 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 5:28TULNJavin Gordon 4 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)31–14
- Q2 0:12TULNPatrick Durkin 28 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q2 2:13TULNJavin Gordon 25 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)21–14
- Q2 6:57TLSABrody Foley 72 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:10TULNJavin Gordon 12 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:14TLSATim Hardiman 1 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:28TULNJake Retzlaff 8 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1072, TULN Elo 1579 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +17.9 (13% to win) — 3.4 points clear of TULN's market line of +14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTulsa leads 13–8 · Tulane has won 3 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| TULN | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.0 (#47) | CORE overall | -8.2 (#90) |
| +5 / -2 | offense / defense | -8 / +0 |
| 2.56 | points / drive | 1.91 |
| 2.20 | allowed / drive | 2.62 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →