Tulane vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsMISS
- Q4 3:42TULNAnthony Brown-Stephens 6 Yd pass from Brendan Sullivan (Patrick Durkin Kick)10–45
- Q4 8:17MISSDeuce Alexander 33 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)3–45
- Q4 11:45MISSLogan Diggs 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)3–38
- Q4 14:55MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Trinidad Chambliss Pass to Harrison Wallace III for Two-Point Conversion)3–31
- Q2 0:24MISSLucas Carneiro 33 Yd Field Goal 3–23
- Q2 4:09MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)3–20
- Q2 6:40TULNPatrick Durkin 34 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 12:48MISSLucas Carneiro 54 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 3:13MISSLucas Carneiro 22 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:23MISSDae'Quan Wright 5 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJake Retzlaff 5/17, 56 YDS
- RushJake Retzlaff 8 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecShazz Preston 3 REC, 35 YDS
- PassTrinidad Chambliss 17/27, 307 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTrinidad Chambliss 14 CAR, 112 YDS
- RecDeuce Alexander 4 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMISS up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:23MISS +10%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 5 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. Ole Miss?
Tulane 10, Ole Miss 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
| TULN | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 282 | Total yards | 548 |
| 104 | Passing yards | 307 |
| 178 | Rushing yards | 241 |
| 18 | First downs | 23 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 10/29 | Comp/Att | 17/27 |
| 3.6 | Yards per pass | 11.4 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 32:29 | Possession | 27:31 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:48 TULN punt on 4th & 2 at TULN 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:42TULNAnthony Brown-Stephens 6 Yd pass from Brendan Sullivan (Patrick Durkin Kick)10–45
- Q4 8:17MISSDeuce Alexander 33 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)3–45
- Q4 11:45MISSLogan Diggs 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)3–38
- Q4 14:55MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Trinidad Chambliss Pass to Harrison Wallace III for Two-Point Conversion)3–31
- Q2 0:24MISSLucas Carneiro 33 Yd Field Goal 3–23
- Q2 4:09MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)3–20
- Q2 6:40TULNPatrick Durkin 34 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 12:48MISSLucas Carneiro 54 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 3:13MISSLucas Carneiro 22 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:23MISSDae'Quan Wright 5 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1918, TULN Elo 1642 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -13.4 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOle Miss leads 43–24 · Ole Miss has won 15 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| TULN | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.0 (#47) | CORE overall | +19.4 (#16) |
| +5 / -2 | offense / defense | +16 / -4 |
| 2.56 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 2.20 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →