| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TULN | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| MISS | 10 | 13 | 0 | 22 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MISS Elo 1918, TULN Elo 1642) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -13.4 (84% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MISS up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tulane 10, Ole Miss 45.
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TULN 33 Damien Taylor fumbled, recovered by TULN Jah'rie Garner
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Anthony Brown-Stephens
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 47 yds to the TULN 20 for a 1ST down
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