Troy
1-0·Sun Belt· Elo 1476
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| CLEM | 0 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CLEM Elo 1692, TROY Elo 1476) plus home-field advantage. That projects CLEM -11 (79% to win) — 19.0 points of value on TROY versus the market line of -30.
CLEM up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Troy 16, Clemson 27.
Yes — the model's pick (CLEM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had CLEM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Cade Klubnik pass intercepted TJ Thompson return for 4 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe PAT MISSED)
Goose Crowder pass complete to Tray Taylor for 44 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
Goose Crowder pass complete to Rara Thomas for 19 yds to the CLEM 38 for a 1ST down
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