| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 22 |
| LOU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LOU Elo 1744, TOL Elo 1651) on a neutral field. That projects LOU -3.7 (61% to win) — 7.3 points of value on TOL versus the market line of -11.
LOU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Toledo 22, Louisville 27.
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had LOU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jacob Petersen 26 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Chip Trayanum Run for Two-Point Conversion)
(00:13) Kneel down by Louisville at TOL45 for loss of 28 yards
Isaac Brown 53 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier PAT blocked)
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