Toledo vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsLOU
- Q4 2:24TOLChip Trayanum 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–27
- Q4 5:03TOLAvery Smith Defensive PAT Conversion 16–27
- Q4 5:03LOUIsaac Brown 53 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier PAT blocked)14–27
- Q4 6:35TOLRobert Hammond III 50 Yd Field Goal 14–21
- Q4 10:42TOLJacob Petersen 26 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Chip Trayanum Run for Two-Point Conversion)11–21
- Q4 14:53LOUIsaac Brown 11 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)3–21
- Q3 3:40LOUAntonio Meeks 5 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)3–14
- Q1 0:11TOLRobert Hammond III 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:26LOUTreyShun Hurry 17 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKalieb Osborne 17/28, 167 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKalieb Osborne 18 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecJunior Vandeross III 7 REC, 61 YDS
- PassMiller Moss 16/24, 153 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKeyjuan Brown 15 CAR, 112 YDS
- RecCaullin Lacy 6 REC, 88 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Louisville?
Toledo 22, Louisville 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
| TOL | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 336 | Total yards | 333 |
| 167 | Passing yards | 153 |
| 169 | Rushing yards | 180 |
| 20 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 1-9 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 17/28 | Comp/Att | 16/24 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 14-100 | Penalties | 6-47 |
| 31:46 | Possession | 28:14 |
- Q4 2:24TOLChip Trayanum 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–27
- Q4 5:03TOLAvery Smith Defensive PAT Conversion 16–27
- Q4 5:03LOUIsaac Brown 53 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier PAT blocked)14–27
- Q4 6:35TOLRobert Hammond III 50 Yd Field Goal 14–21
- Q4 10:42TOLJacob Petersen 26 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Chip Trayanum Run for Two-Point Conversion)11–21
- Q4 14:53LOUIsaac Brown 11 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)3–21
- Q3 3:40LOUAntonio Meeks 5 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)3–14
- Q1 0:11TOLRobert Hammond III 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:26LOUTreyShun Hurry 17 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1744, TOL Elo 1651 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects LOU -3.7 (61% to win) — 7.3 points clear of TOL's market line of -11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TOL | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.3 (#19) | CORE overall | +18.6 (#18) |
| +3 / -15 | offense / defense | +5 / -14 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 1.17 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →