Toledo vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsBGSU
- Q4 0:00TOLTeam Safety23–28
- Q4 6:07BGSUChris McMillian 1 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)21–28
- Q4 7:03BGSUCameron Pettaway 73 Yd pass from RJ Garcia II (Jackson Kleather Kick)21–21
- Q3 1:52BGSUJacob Harris 8 Yd pass from Lucian Anderson III (Jackson Kleather Kick)21–14
- Q2 0:13BGSUCameron Pettaway 45 Yd pass from Lucian Anderson III (Jackson Kleather Kick)21–7
- Q2 1:29TOLJacob Petersen 17 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:39TOLTucker Gleason 12 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:03TOLChip Trayanum 14 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BGSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 23% success rate
- PassTucker Gleason 19/30, 264 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushChip Trayanum 27 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJunior Vandeross III 6 REC, 100 YDS
- PassLucian Anderson III 9/16, 92 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushLucian Anderson III 10 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecCameron Pettaway 2 REC, 118 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:07BGSU +58%
Chris McMillian run for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
- Q4 7:03BGSU +43%
RJ Garcia II pass complete to Cameron Pettaway for 73 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
- Q4 6:34TOL +21%
Kenji Christian run for 2 yds to the TOL 6
- Q1 12:03TOL +16%
Chip Trayanum run for 14 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
- Q3 1:52BGSU +16%
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Jacob Harris for 8 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
- Q1 3:39TOL +12%
Tucker Gleason run for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Bowling Green?
Toledo 23, Bowling Green 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TOL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TOL | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 429 | Total yards | 226 |
| 264 | Passing yards | 165 |
| 165 | Rushing yards | 61 |
| 23 | First downs | 10 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/30 | Comp/Att | 10/17 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 13-109 | Penalties | 7-55 |
| 34:08 | Possession | 25:52 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:43 BGSU punt on 4th & 1 at BGSU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00TOLTeam Safety23–28
- Q4 6:07BGSUChris McMillian 1 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)21–28
- Q4 7:03BGSUCameron Pettaway 73 Yd pass from RJ Garcia II (Jackson Kleather Kick)21–21
- Q3 1:52BGSUJacob Harris 8 Yd pass from Lucian Anderson III (Jackson Kleather Kick)21–14
- Q2 0:13BGSUCameron Pettaway 45 Yd pass from Lucian Anderson III (Jackson Kleather Kick)21–7
- Q2 1:29TOLJacob Petersen 17 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:39TOLTucker Gleason 12 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:03TOLChip Trayanum 14 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BGSU Elo 1411, TOL Elo 1562 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BGSU +3.6 (41% to win) — 6.9 points clear of BGSU's market line of +10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#71 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #32 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Toledo leads 33–30–1 · Bowling Green has won 2 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| TOL | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.3 (#19) | CORE overall | -18.8 (#122) |
| +3 / -15 | offense / defense | -16 / +3 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 1.17 | allowed / drive | 2.20 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →