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Toledo vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 11, 4:00 PM
Doyt L. Perry StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 14 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 |
| BGSU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BGSU 1411
TOL 1562
Projected spread
BGSU +3.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
TOL
61% to win
Market spread
BGSU +10.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
BGSU
6.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
39%
BGSU · market 24%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BGSU Elo 1411, TOL Elo 1562) plus home-field advantage. That projects BGSU +3.6 (39% to win) — 6.9 points of value on BGSU versus the market line of +10.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BGSU (top)TOL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BGSU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
TOL2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBGSU
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.0244%
Success rate
36%1.23
Explosiveness
1.233.86
Pts / opportunity
3.1978%
Power success
58%Defense
-0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.1533%
Success rate allowed
41%1.17
Explosiveness allowed
1.3120%
Havoc rate
19%22%
Stuff rate
25%Key matchups · Pro
- BGSU pass offense (0.07 PPA) vs. TOL pass defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge BGSU.
- TOL rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. BGSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge TOL.
- BGSU rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. TOL rush defense (-0.01 allowed) — edge BGSU.
Drive-by-drive
TOL 3/15 scoring drives← own end zone →BGSU 5/15 scoring drives
TOLTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
BGSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 21Q1
TOLDOWNS6 pl, 20 yds· opp 41Q1
BGSUPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 21Q1
TOLTD7 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q1
BGSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 20Q1
TOLPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 27Q1
BGSUPUNT8 pl, 33 yds· own 29Q2
TOLDOWNS9 pl, 94 yds· own 4Q2
BGSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 2Q2
TOLTD5 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q2
BGSUTD5 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q2
TOLEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 6Q2
BGSUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3
TOLPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 15Q3
BGSUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 31Q3
TOLPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 16Q3
BGSUTD7 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q3
TOLPUNT8 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q3
BGSUINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4
TOLPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 30Q4
BGSUPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 43Q4
TOLPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q4
BGSUTD2 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4
TOLFUM2 pl, -3 yds· own 4Q4
BGSUTD1 pl, 1 yds· opp 1Q4
TOLPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 23Q4
BGSUPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 35Q4
TOLINT6 pl, 41 yds· own 27Q4
BGSUSAF4 pl, -23 yds· own 23Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TOL up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
TOL went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Bowling Green?
Toledo 23, Bowling Green 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TOL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had TOL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.